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UPA era growth rates revised downward in new back-series data

Chief Statistician Pravin Srivastava said the methodology and concepts incorporated to arrive at the back-series data were consistent with international standards.




New Delhi, Nov 28 (IANS) The government on Wednesday released the much-awaited back-series estimates for India’s GDP which showed a lower rate of growth during the UPA years between 2005-06 and 2011-12 than what was estimated using the earlier methodology.

As per the data released by the Central Statistics Office (CSO), the maximum growth rate the economy achieved during the UPA years was 8.5 per cent in 2010-11, significantly lower than the 10.3 per cent estimated earlier.

NITI Aayog Vice Chairman Rajiv Kumar said an extensive recalibration exercise using the latest data sources and methodological changes had led to a change in growth rates in the back series.

He said the back series had been checked for its methodological soundness by leading statistical experts in the country during two round tables organised by the NITI Aayog in which domain experts participated to ensure the quality of coverage and methodology.

Chief Statistician Pravin Srivastava said the methodology and concepts incorporated to arrive at the back-series data were consistent with international standards.

“The recalibration exercise led to a change in growth rates in the back series and today’s exercise is a result of comprehensive work,” he said.

In January 2015, the government had moved to a new base year of 2011-12 from the earlier base year of 2004-05 for national accounts. After introduction of the new series, back-series estimates are compiled and released for the years preceding the new base year for completeness and comparability with old base data sets.

As per the data released by the CSO, growth rates for all years between 2005-06 and 2011-12 have been revised downwards — to 7.9 per cent in 2005-06 from 9.3 per cent, 8.1 per cent in 2006-07 from 9.3 per cent, 7.7 per cent in 2007-08 from 9.8 per cent, 3.1 per cent in 2008-09 from 3.9 per cent, 7.9 per cent in 2009-10 from 8.5 per cent, 8.5 per cent in 2010-11 from 10.3 per cent, and 5.2 per cent in 2011-12 from 6.6 per cent.

The growth rate for the years after the new base is estimated to be 5.5 per cent (2012-13), 6.4 per cent (2013-14), 7.4 per cent (2014-15), 8.2 per cent (2015-16), 7.1 per cent (2016-17) and 6.7 per cent (2017-18).

In August, a committee appointed by the National Statistical Commission had submitted in its report that the economy grew at a faster rate during the UPA period compared with the average growth rate during the first four years of the current government. The government responded that it was only a draft seeking comments and was not the final word on the matter.

On the downward revision of UPA era growth rates, the NITI Aayog Vice Chairman said the government had no intention to “mislead or do something purposefully which did not reflect the reality”.

Kumar said the back-series data was “far more superior than the previous one” and that it was internationally comparable and in sync with United Nations System of National Accounts (SNA 2008).

“CSO today released the back series of GDP/GVA for period 2004-05 to 2011-12 with base 2011-12 prices. Used SNA 2008 concepts, latest data sources and indices for the back series. Methodological changes include institutional approach, reference rate method for FISIM (Financial Intermediation Services Indirectly Measured),” the NITI Aayog Vice Chairman said.

“Treatment of trade sector (has been done) using sales tax instead of Gross Trading Income (GTI). Share of primary, secondary sectors (has gone) up in the back series while tertiary sector (has) reduced. Recalibration exercise led to a change in growth rates in back series,” he added.

As per the new data, the share of primary sector in total Gross Value Added (GVA) is higher than that in the earlier 2004-05 series primarily due to changes in the data sources, the government said in a statement.

“The share of secondary sector in total GVA has increased in the back-series compared to the 2004-05 series. The increase is largely due to use of Ministry of Corporate Affairs (MCA) data and public sector data in organised electricity and manufacturing Sectors which was earlier sourced from annual reports of private electricity companies registered with the Central Electricity Authority and Annual Survey of Industries respectively,” it said.

It added that the share of tertiary sector in overall GVA had reduced largely on account of the use of revised methodology and latest survey data sources of unorganised sector in the new base.


Sensex, Nifty open higher



Sensex equity Nifty

Mumbai, Feb 15: The Sensex gained close to 140 points after opening higher on Friday while the Nifty logged slight gains to trade above the 10,750 mark.

Utilities, oil and gas and power stocks gained on the BSE while key sectors like finance and banking traded lower.

The BSE Sensex opened at 35,985.68 from its previous close at 35,876.22 on Thursday.

At 9.16 a.m., the Sensex traded at 36,014.08 higher by 137.86 points or 0.38 per cent.

The Nifty of the National Stock Exchange (NSE) opened lower at 10,930.90 after closing at 10,943.60 on Thursday.

The Nifty traded at 10,752.15 during the morning trade session, up 6.10 points and 0.06 per cent.

On Thursday, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net sellers and the domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net buyers.

FIIs sold stocks worth Rs 250.23 crore while the DIIs bought stocks to the tune of Rs 1,225.24 crore.


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Rahul says GST killed Gujarat’s economic base



Rahul Gandhi

Lal Dungri (South Gujarat), Feb 14 (IANS) Congress President Rahul Gandhi on Thursday established a connect with the crowds here in Gujarat, scoffing at Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s development claims in his home state and alleging that GST had killed the state’s small and medium scale businessmen who were its true pillars.

“Sardar ney humko rasta dikhaya tha, Mahatma Gandhi ney rasta dikhaya tha, ab Gujarat ke log firse dikhayenge kaise logon ko ek karte hain, sahi vikas kya hain (Sardar showed us the way, Gandhi showed us the way, now people of Gujarat will once again show how to unite the country, what is real development),” he declared to loud applause.

As the crowds listened in rapt attention, Gandhi made an sentimental appeal: “Gujarat has given immense love and respect to me, I will never forget this. There is nothing bigger for me. I love to come here as many as times as possible. I love the people of Gujarat, I love the food here.”

As the crowds cheered and whistled, he said: “Whenever Gujarat calls me, I will be there. Wherever I am, I promise, whenever you call me I will come.”

Taunting Modi’s ‘Mann Ki Baat’ radio programme, the Congress chief added, addressing the crowd: “You are our masters. The farmers, the tribals, the downtrodden are our masters. Not Anil Ambani, not Nirav Modi, not Vijay Mallya.”

There was loud applause when he referred to Jay Shah, son of BJP President Amit Shah.

“He converted Rs 700 crore black money into white through a cooperative bank (Ahmedabad District Cooperative Bank of which Amit Shah is a director). But Narendra Modi will not speak about this,” he asserted.

Just as Gandhi exhorted the crowds to shout after him “chowkidar chor hai” he said: “Delhi mein kehte hain chor hai, Gujarati mein bolte hain Chor Chhey.” The people broke into huge laughter and some shouted back “mahachor chhey” and “paako chor chhey”.

Gandhi said “Modi’s Gabbar Singh Tax (Goods and Services Tax)” had sounded the death knell of the small and medium scale businessmen who were the true pillars of Gujarat’s economic prowess. And GST came as an insult to injury to the common men after demonetization, he added.

“The UPA government in 2019 will bring real GST, where it will be a truly simple tax and truly one tax, not the present version.”

Gandhi said the Congress brought National Rural Employment Guarantee Act, Food Security Act and a progressive and people-oriented land acquisition law. “And now we are coming with a concept of guaranteed income.

“Under this, money will be directly transferred in your bank account… We have been planning for this for over three to four months.”

Referring to the Bharatmala project, Gandhi said it was “bharat-maara not Bharatmala” through which lands of farmers and poor were being snatched.

He challenged the BJP government to implement the Land Acquisition Act which the UPA government had brought in 2013. “We implemented it in Chhattisgarh immediately after our party came to power. Our government got the Tatas to return thousands of acres of unused land according to the law,” Gandhi added.

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Market down for sixth-straight session; Sensex falls 157 pts




Mumbai, Feb 14: Sharp jump in Brent crude oil price along with subdued quarterly earning results and a weak rupee pulled the key equity indices lower for a sixth straight session on Thursday.

Lately, outflows of foreign funds, caution on the fiscal slippage front have dampened investors’ sentiments.

The S&P BSE Sensex lost 157.89 points or 0.44 per cent to settle at 35,876.22 after it opened slightly higher from its previous close of 36,034.11, while the Nifty closed 47.60 points lower at 10,746.05.

However, S&P BSE Mid-cap gained 0.52 per cent while the Small-caps also surged 0.17 per cent after under performing for the past week.

“Market extended losses despite positive global market as investors continued to give more focus on domestic cues while assessing global developments. Moderation in WPI to 2.76 per cent in January provides an insight about the slowdown in the economy and earnings growth,” said Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Financial Services.

Nair added that Mid and Small cap rebounded “after many days of correction, however investors are yet to find stability in the market in expectation of election outcome”.

According to Essel Mutual Fund’s CIO Viral Berawala, “WPI inflation came in at 2.76 per cent from 3.80 per cent on month-on-month basis due to decline in core inflation, leading to gains in banking stocks”.

“This selling combined with some profit booking in consumer sector led to markets trading weak,” Berawala said.

Yes Bank logged its sharpest intra-day gain after surging over 30 per cent following Reserve Bank of India’s clean chit on any divergence in bad loan reporting.

Scrips of the private lender closed 30.73 per cent higher at Rs 221 from its previous close of 169.05. It surged up to 32 per cent, touching an intra-day high of 223.70.

It was followed by Tata Motors (DVR), Tata Motors, Sun Pharma and IndusInd Bank inching up in the range of 1 to 4.5 per cent.

Bharti Airtel, Infosys, Asian Paints, Reliance Industries and Coal India declined 1 to 3 per cent.


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