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Single stock rallying markets, unnerving – Time to be cautious – Market Watch

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The week gone by saw markets jump sharply on Thursday and the gains registered on that day were enough to keep indices in positive territory. BSESENSEX gained 497.37 points or 1.30 per cent to close at 38.854.55 points while NIFTY gained 130.60 points or 1.15 per cent to close at 11,464.45 points. The broader markets saw BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 gain 1.07 per cent, 0.91 per cent and 0.77 per cent respectively. BSEMIDCAP lost 1.06 per cent while BSESMALLCAP was down 0.31 per cent.

The Indian rupee lost 40 paisa or 0.55 per cent to close at Rs 73.54 to the US Dollar. Dow Jones was under pressure and lost 467.67 points or 1.66 per cent to close at 27,665.64 points.

Markets last week were a mixed bag and the final weekly outcome is certainly not reflected in the numbers. While indices were up between 1.15 per cent and 1.30 per cent the benchmark indices components were largely down. Reliance Industries was the notable exception, gaining a massive Rs 242 or 11.65 per cent. This translates to roughly 1.4-1.5 times the weekly gains on the SENSEX and NIFTY. Bulk of the gains in Reliance came on Thursday when the stock gained Rs 154 and SENSEX was up by 647 points. The important news for Reliance was the investment by Silver Lake of Rs 7,500 crore to buy 1.75 per cent in RRVL (Reliance Retail Ventures Limited) valuing the company at Rs 4.21 lakh crore. This also made the market cap of Reliance Industries to cross 200 billion dollars, making it the first Indian company to do so.

The two primary market offerings which opened and closed during the week had a fantastic response and showed that retail investors are more than willing to invest in the primary market. The first issue from Happiest Mind Technologies Limited saw the issue overall getting subscribed 150.98 times. The QIB portion was subscribed 77.43 times, HNI portion 351.46 times and Retail portion 70.94 times. The price band was Rs 165-166. The issue consisted of a fresh offer of Rs 110 crore and an offer for sale of 3.55 crore shares. There were over 22 lakh applications in the issue.

The second issue during the week was from Route Mobile Limited and was subscribed 74.36 times. The QIB portion was subscribed 91.06 times, HNI portion 195.61 times, Retail portion was subscribed 12.85 times. The price band was Rs 345-350. The issue comprised of a fresh issue of Rs 240 crore and an offer for sale of Rs 360 crore.

SEBI has come out with a fresh set of guidelines for mutual funds who run multi-cap funds. These guidelines are to be effective January 2021 and would change the way these funds/schemes are run. These guidelines are quite contrary to what was specified when they came out with guidelines for funds some two years ago. The new guidelines state that any Multicap fund would have to invest a minimum of 25 per cent in each of the three categories of stocks namely large cap, mid cap and small cap. At present the corpus of all the Multicap funds run by various mutual funds is Rs 1.47 lakh or say Rs 1.50 lakh for discussion purposes. This implies that they would have to invest Rs 37,500 in midcap and Smallcap each. The largest fund in Multicap is Kotak at 29,714 crore. The present break up is 28 per cent or Rs 8,300 in midcap and a mere 0.3 or Rs 90 crore in Smallcap. This implies that a sum of Rs 6,200 crore would have to be invested in Smallcap stocks. This is easier said than done as the definition of Smallcap begins at serial number 251 of market capitalisation which based on six months average ending June 2020, shows the stock market capitalisation at Rs 6,955 crore. The 500th stock has a market cap of Rs 1,695 crore while the 1000th stock is at Rs 313 crore. The 3000th stock comes in at Rs 10 crore. This implies that there is virtually no depth in the small cap category.

The first thing that comes to mind is that Smallcap stocks would have a field day at the bourses. This would be incorrect as schemes of mutual funds would have to write to unit holders and ask for consent to change the system of fund allocation. They would also have to offer a no-load exit to those not willing to continue. With there being hardly any liquidity in the Smallcap segment, it would be impractical to expect this scheme from SEBI to become successful. Fund managers would ask for the scheme to be fine-tuned at least as far as small cap is concerned.

On the Covid-19 front, the number of patients globally has increased to 289,46,628 people with 924,610 deaths and 208,13,150 people recovering. In India, the number of affected people has risen to 47,54,356 people with 78,614 deaths and 37,02,595 people having recovered. Compared to the previous week globally there were 18,76,644 new patients, 40,830 deaths and 16,42,264 people having recovered. In India, there were 6,39,583 new patients, 7,910 deaths, and 5,21,596 people recovering.

Coming to the week ahead in markets expect volatility to increase. While there could be some movement in small and midcap stocks on account of SEBI changes for mutual funds, they would be unsustainable as there is still time for their implementation. Mutual funds would ask for more time to implement and the bifurcation may see more changes as the 25 per cent for Smallcap looks impractical. Secondly, that the rally last week was more based on a singular stock Reliance, is certainly not comforting. If the rally is to sustain the same has to become broad-based, it cannot be so narrow. The strategy for the week would be to sell on rallies and wait for markets to correct before initiating fresh purchases.

(Arun Kejriwal is the founder of Kejriwal Research and Investment Services. The views expressed are personal)

–IANS

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Jaswant Singh: A soft-spoken former Army officer, astute politician

A soft-spoken man, Jaswant Singh was one of the founding members of BJP and a leading light of the party when Atal Bihari Vajpayee and LK Advani helmed it through tumultuous period of Indian politics

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Jaswant Singh

A soft-spoken man, former BJP leader Jaswant Singh was one of the founding members of the Bharatiya Janata Party and a leading light of the party when Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Lal Krishan Advani helmed it through the tumultuous period of Indian politics. And with his demise, another party stalwart of that era has passed into eternity.

Given that he had retired as a Major-rank officer from the Indian Army, it was no surprise that he was very punctual in his meetings with different people.

The veteran politician passed away at the age of 82 early Sunday morning at the Army Research and Referral Hospital in Delhi following a cardiac arrest.

Even though he was from an Army background, he not only handled the porfolios of defence, but also finance and external affairs in the Atal Bihari Vajpayee governments. He was one of the key Ministers who were in the forefront when Vajpayee’s government was in power at the Centre at different points in time.

Jaswant Singh, who hailed from Rajasthan, first served as the Union Finance Minister in the shortlived Vajpayee government in 1996. He became the External Affairs Minister in the next Vajpayee-led government (1998-2002). Later, he was again given the charge of finance in 2002. The veteran leader was also Deputy Chairman of then Planning Commission at one point in time.

The BJP leader was made the Defence Minister following the resignation of George Fernandes after the latter’s name cropped up in a defence scam.

An astute politician, Jaswant Singh hogged media limelight the world over when he was tasked to hold talks with the Taliban for the release of passengers of an Indian Airlines flight hijacked in December 1999. He even escorted three terrorists, accused of various crimes that included the 2008 Mumbai terror attacks, to Afghanistan to swap in lieu of the safe release of 190 passengers.

After the 1998 nuclear tests by India, Jaswant Singh was deputed by then Prime Minister Vajpayee to engage the US in strategic talks.

After the BJP party lost power at the Centre in 2004 to the United Progressive Alliance, Jaswant Singh served as Leader of the Opposition in the Rajya Sabha from 2004 to 2009.

The veteran leader stirred a controversy after the BJP suffered its second successive defeat in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections by circulating a note to demand a thorough discussion on the poll debacle.

He again faced a backlash in 2009 from certain quarters after a book authored by him on Pakistan leader Muhammad Ali Jinnah, entitled ‘Jinnah: India-Partition-Independence’ was released. He had written sympathetically about the founder of Pakistan. Later, the BJP leader was marginalised within the party and subsequently expelled.

He was reinducted into the party later on, but parted ways in 2014. Jaswant Singh even contested the 2014 Lok Sabha elections as an Independent from Barmer in Rajasthan after failing to get a BJP ticket but lost to the party nominee Colonel Sona Ram.

Soon after the general elections in 2014, Jaswant Singh slipped in the bathroom of his residence on August 7 that year, and suffered a serious head injury.

Condoling the death of the veteran leader, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said that he served the nation diligently — first as a soldier and later during his long association with politics.

“During Atalji’s government, he handled crucial portfolios and left a strong mark in the worlds of finance, defence, and external affairs. Saddened by his demise,” the Prime Minister said in his message.

“True to his nature, Jaswantji fought his illness with immense courage for the last six years,” Modi said.

Defence Minister Rajnath Singh said that Jaswant Singh would be remembered for his intellectual capabilities and stellar record in service to the nation. “He also played a key role in strengthening the BJP in Rajasthan. Condolences to his family and supporters in this sad hour. Om Shanti,” the Minister said.

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Market Watch – Markets not yet out of the woods

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Sensex Stock Market Update UP and Low

Markets behaved on expected lines and fell on the first four trading days with a sell-off on expiry day. They recovered on Friday the first day of the new futures series which is of five weeks duration. BSESENSEX lost 1,457.16 points or 3.75 per cent to close at 37,388.66 points while NIFTY lost 454.70 points or 3.95 per cent to close at 11,050.25 points. The broader markets saw BSE100, BSE200 and BSE 500 lose 3.98 per cent, 4.14 per cent and 4.24 per cent respectively. BSEMIDCAP lost 4.73 per cent while BSESMALLCAP lost 5.26 per cent. There was panic across the board on Thursday and it was selling by FII’s and liquidation by momentum traders which led to the mayhem. The recovery on Friday was equally sharp and about a third of the losses of four days have been recovered.

The Indian Rupee lost 17 paisa or 0.23 per cent to close at Rs 73.61 to the US Dollar. After a volatile week, Dow Jones closed with losses of 520.46 points or 1.88 per cent at 27,657.42 points.

September series expired with losses of 753.70 points, or 6.52 per cent at 10,805.55 points. This was the lowest closing of NIFTY during the month. On an intra-day basis, the NIFTY on expiry day had touched a low of 10,790.20 points while the low on the BSESENSEX was 36,495.98 points.

The week gone by was about the primary market with three issues opening and closing for subscription and one new listing. Shares of Route Mobile made their debut on Monday and closed at Rs 651.10, a gain of Rs 301.10 or 86.03 per cent. Shares were issued at Rs 350. The striking feature of the day’s trading was the delivery percentage of 97.74 per cent of the non-anchor portion. This effectively means that almost everybody who got allotment of shares, sold on day one. 25 per cent of these shares were bought by two institutional investors and this saw the share gaining further ground to close at Rs 938.60, a gain of Rs 168.17 per cent.

Computer Age Management Services Limited which had tapped the capital markets with its offer for sale saw subscription of 46.99 times. The QIB portion was subscribed 73.18 times, HNI portion subscribed 111.85 times and Retail portion subscribed 46.99 times. The price band was Rs 1229-1230. Shares would list on 1st of October.

The second issue was from Chemcon Speciality Chemicals Limited and shares were issued in a price band of Rs 338-340. The issue was subscribed 149.33 times overall. QIB portion was subscribed 113.54 times, HNI portion 449.14 times while Retail portion was subscribed 41.21 times. This issue would list on Thursday the 1st of October.

The third issue was from Angel Broking Limited and was subscribed 3.94 times overall. Shares were issued in a price band of Rs 305-306. QIB portion was subscribed 5.74 times, HNI portion undersubscribed at 0.69 times and Retail portion subscribed 4.31 times. This issue would list on Monday 5th October.

There are three issues opening next week on Tuesday the 29th of September and closing on Thursday the 1st of October. The first issue is from Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders Limited which is issuing shares in a price band of Rs 135-145. The issue is an offer for sale from the government of India for 3,05,99,017 equity shares. Being a government offer, there would be no anchor allocation. The EPS for the period ended March 2020 was Rs 21.36 and the PE multiple is 6.32 to 6.79. Mazagon Dock is into warships and submarine building and is the only shipyard in India with submarine making capability. There are two other defence PSU listed shipyard companies namely, Garden Reach Shipbuilders and Cochin Shipyard. The issue is very attractively priced and offers ample scope for appreciation. However, allotment would be only by lottery.

The second issue is from UTI Asset Management Company Limited which is through an offer for sale of 3,89,87,081 shares by NSE. The price band is Rs 552.-554. The company had earned an EPS of Rs 21.53 for the year ended March 2020. The PE multiple based on March 2020 numbers is 25.64-25.73. The net asset value or NAV is Rs 212.88 as on 31st March 2020. There are two listed peers for the company, HDFC AMC and Nippon Life India Asset Management Limited. Compared to the peers, the issue is reasonably priced.

The third issue is from Likhitha Infrastructure Limited which is raising capital through a fresh issue of 51 lac shares in a price band of Rs 117-120. The EPS for the year ended March 2020 was Rs 13.59. The PE based on March 2020 is 8.61-8.83. The company is into the business of laying city gas distribution pipes and also product pipeline on a cross country basis. The company has an order book of over Rs 662 crore as of July 2020 and this would be executed over the next 24-30 months. Revenue for the year ended March 2020 was Rs 162 crore. The company gets pipes as a free item for installation from the customer, hence the revenue looks lower than the word ‘infrastructure player’ suggests. Looks an interesting company but the size of the issue and the simultaneous issues from three companies could act as a drag.

Covid-19 saw the world have 330,58,750 patients, 998,747 deaths and 244,11,772 patients recover. In India we had 59,92,532 patients, 94,534 deaths and 49,41,627 people recovering. Compared to the previous week, the world saw 20,65,770 new patients, 37,272 deaths and 18,23,867 patients recovering. In India we saw 5,91,913 new patients, 7,760 deaths and 6,38,58. This is the first time that the number of patients recovering is higher than new patients. This is the first time that the number of patients recovering is higher than new patients.

Coming to the markets, we saw the anticipated correction pan out and the price damage that it led to. We are not yet out of the woods and it would be fair to assume that after a continuation of the current one-day old rally which could last for a further day or two, expect the correction downwards to continue. While lows made on Thursday of 36,495 on BSESENSEX and 10,790 on NIFTY would act as immediate supports, the breaking of these levels could bring a sharper and swifter correction. Use rallies to sell and sharp dips to buy. Refrain from having overnight positions. The week has a trading holiday on Friday and that would bring a sharp reduction in positions on Thursday closing as we have a three-day holiday thereafter. The two new listings on Thursday would keep markets buoyant and engrossed on the last day of the week. Trade cautiously.

(Arun Kejriwal is the founder of Kejriwal Research and Investment Services. The views expressed are personal)

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Sad state of Yamuna pains green warriors – World Rivers Day

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Yamuna World Rivers Day

River lovers and green activists in Agra on Sunday celebrated the World Rivers Day, at the Etmauddaula view-point park, by cleaning up a stretch of Yamuna bank and taking out a rally to demand a comprehensive National Rivers policy along with constitution of a Central Rivers Authority to manage major rivers of India.

Eminent environmentalist and member of the River Connect Campaign, Devashish Bhattacharya said “the world rivers day commemorates the many values of rivers and encourages river stewardship and conservational efforts around the world. Due to the Covid-19 pandemic public participation in the annual event was restricted, but small groups joined river front activities and through web-seminars highlighted the pathetic plight of most rivers in India”.

In fact the pandemic had underlined the important contribution of healthy rivers to our well-being, he added.

“Most rivers are facing increasing pressures associated with climate change, industrial pollution, fallouts of haphazard urbanization and population explosion. Even after seven decades of Independence India does not have a clear road map or a national rivers policy, resulting in protracted wrangling among states over water-sharing and maintenance of waterways,” Pramod Gautam, chairman of the Vedic Sutram, after the Yamuna March, told IANS.

This year’s theme is “waterways in our communities” to stress on the need for protecting and conserving urban waterways.

“The importance of clean fresh water is essential to the fight against Covid-19 so World Rivers Day is a timely opportunity for literally millions of people around the world to come together to commemorate the importance of healthy vibrant waterways,” said Mark Angelo, the founder and Chair of World Rivers Day, in his message to the river activists.

“Rivers are integral to all life,” said Angelo, who has paddled more than 1,000 rivers in over 100 countries, perhaps more than any other. Angelo’s life-long commitment to river conservation, including the founding of World Rivers Day, is also the subject of the upcoming feature length film, “Last Paddle: 1,000 Rivers, One Life”.

In the Braj Mandal, the River Connect Campaign has been actively involved in conservational efforts to save Yamuna river from further degradation.

“Though the river Yamuna is considered sacred, being the beloved consort of Sri Krishna, the Brijbasis are pained to see the river choking to death due to pollution by industries and civic bodies that seem to have no control over sewage discharge,” said Jagan Nath Poddar, convener of Friends of Vrindavan.

Rivers are our life-lines and our future is intricately linked to the health of our holy rivers, added Vrindavan green activist Madhu Mangal.

Pandit Jugal Kishor Shrotriya, Mahant of daily Yamuna Arti in Agra, reminded Union Transport Minister Nitin Gadkiri of his oft-repeated promise to start ferry service in Yamuna between Delhi and Agra.

The Braj Mandal Heritage Conservation Society vice president Shravan Kumar Singh said there was an urgent need to construct a barrage on Yamuna downstream of the Taj Mahal, so that these magnificent Mughal monuments are not harmed by air and water pollution.

The Yogi Adityanath government should have focused more on saving rivers in Uttar Pradesh through dredging and desilting than prioritizing the Film City project in Greater Noida, added Surendra Sharma, founder president of the Agra Hotels and Restaurants Association.

Sharma pointed out that the local administration had failed to activate the River Police squad, shift dhobis and ban cattle grazing in the Yamuna.

“Though the district administration had declared Agra ODF (open defecation free) people were still going to the river bed to answer nature’s calls, a sight that is a real putoff early in the morning,” activist Rahul Raj said.

“The upstream cities and barrages have to ensure a minimum flow in the river round the year to save a dying river and protect aqua life,” River Connect Campaign activist Padmini Iyer said.

“Haryana is drawing all the water of the Yamuna river, what little is left is consumed by Delhi. Uttar Pradesh does not get its share of water as was promised in the 1994 river water sharing agreement among UP, Haryana, Rajasthan, signed by then Chief Minister Mulayam Singh Yadav.

By: Brij Khandelwal

(can be contacted at [email protected])

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