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Researchers develop statistical model to predict floods

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US WASHINGTON DC HEAVY RAIN

New York, July 16 (IANS) Researchers have developed a novel statistical model for prediction of floods and its duration. It also accurately determines the timescale of flooding.

“It is possible to predict the duration of floods by coupling atmospheric dynamics and land surface conditions in the watershed,” said study researcher Nasser Najibi from the City College of New York.

For the study published in the journal Nature Research, researchers analysed data from the Missouri river basin from the last 50 years to develop the Bayesian network statistical model.

The research team found that long duration floods first require high flow conditions in rivers created by recurrent high-intensity rainfall events, which is then followed by a large stable long-lived low-pressure system — a storm cell. These conditions may then result in large-scale devastating floods.

In shorter duration floods, however, this land-atmospheric coupling is negligible thus explaining why not all storms result in widespread flooding.

The researchers said that with the help of this statistical model, potential risk imposed by longer duration floods on critical infrastructure systems such as flood control dams, bridges and power plants can be mitigated.

It is also possible to predict how long the duration of flooding and inundation will be, they said.

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Cities

Delhi air ‘very poor’ for 3rd day, AQI crosses 400 mark

The SAFAR model forecast suggests calm surface winds and a decrease in ventilation coefficient for the coming days and the condition was conducive for the pollutant accumulation.

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Delhi Pollution Air Quality

New Delhi, Dec 6 : The air quality of the national capital remains ‘very poor’ for the third consecutive day on Friday and was likely to further deteriorate to the ‘severe’ category in some parts of the city on Saturday.

According to the Centre-run System of Air Quality and Weather Forecasting (SAFAR), the overall air quality index (AQI) of Delhi was recorded at 410 on Friday, against Thursday’s 334.

The SAFAR model forecast suggests calm surface winds and a decrease in ventilation coefficient for the coming days and the condition was conducive for the pollutant accumulation.

“AQI is forecasted to stay at the border of very poor to the severe category until Saturday,” SAFAR said.

It said the overall Delhi AQI was in the lower end of the very poor category on Wednesday.

The city had witnessed drastic improvement in the air quality last week as the AQI was recorded in double digits at the ‘satisfactory’ category, after being seeing few of the worst air quality days in November.

The air in the national capital was so toxic after Diwali that the Environmental Pollution (Prevention and Control) Authority (EPCA) had declared a public health emergency in Delhi-NCR and had advised people, especially children and the aged, to limit their exposure to the environment.

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Thunderstorm forecast for parts of Karnataka

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IMD heavy rains predict

Bengaluru, Dec 2 : The Met Department on Monday issued a thunderstorm warning for coastal and south interior Karnataka.

In addition to the thunderstorm, isolated heavy rain was also expected in the areas.

Coastal Karnataka comprises the districts of Dakshina Kannada, Udupi and Uttara Kannada.

The south interior region comprises Ballari, Bengaluru Rural, Bengaluru Urban, Chamaraja Nagar, Chikkaballapura, Chikkamagaluru, Chitradurga, Davanagere, Hassan, Kodagu, Kolar, Mandya, Mysuru, Ramanagara, Shivamogga and Tumkur.

Following three days of isolated rainfall, the two regions were expected to experience dry weather on Friday and Saturday, the official said.

However, north interior Karnataka, comprising 11 districts, has been forecast to receive scattered rainfall on Monday, to be followed by isolated downpours and dry weather on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

In Bengaluru, Monday and Tuesday have been forecast to be generally cloudy with a few spells of rain, accompanied by fog and mist in the morning.

The city is expected to record a minimum temperature of 19.9 degrees Celsius and a maximum temperature of 23.3 degrees Celsius on Monday, with an expected rainfall of 6.9 mm, a Met official said.

On Sunday, no rainfall was recorded in coastal Karnataka while only 0.2 mm downpour was registered in Koppal district in north interior Karnataka.

Except Mysuru in south interior Karnataka, all other districts received rainfall on Sunday. Kolar recorded the highest rainfall at 9.6 mm.

Bengaluru registered 5.5 mm rainfall on Sunday.

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5.3 magnitude earthquake strikes Nepal

There were no immediate reports of injuries or damage to the property as a result of the earthquake.

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Earthquake Strong

KATHMANDU: An earthquake measuring 5.3 on the Richter scale struck Nepal on Tuesday, the European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre (EMSC) said.

The epicenter of the quake, which occurred at around 7:30 pm (local time), was located at a shallow depth of 14 kilometers, about 87 kilometers northwest of Dailekh district, the EMSC said.

There were no immediate reports of injuries or damage to the property as a result of the quake.

Meanwhile, tremors were felt in parts of Delhi-NCR.

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