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Opinion : The Budget was a damp squib

Under Obamacare subsidies covering around 26 million families was estimated to cost $42 billion in 2017. Modicare covering 100 million families allocates $300 million! Even assuming healthcare in India costs one-tenth of US, Modi Govt will still need at least $15 billion a year.



Budget 2018

Finance Minister Arun Jaitley presented his last budget of NDA’s current term as the General elections are slated for next year. If common man expected some soap out of this year’s budget, he will be mostly disappointed as there was absolutely nothing for him. The expectation among the salaried class was quite high that the Income Tax slab will be enhanced in the budget proposal but that didn’t happen.

There was huge expectation among common people that enhancement in income tax limit up to Rs 5 lakh is likely to happen as the government got around Rs 90,000 crore extra in the form of income tax after an increase of 19.25 % in the number of tax payers. The current Budget will hit the common man by unleashing fresh inflationary trends which would result in sky-rocketing prices of consumer goods, besides adversely impacting the middle class.

The government increased the cess to 4 % which will be an additional burden on the genuine tax-payer. It also imposed 10% tax on long term capital gain tax exceeding Rs one lakh which will discourage people from investing in share market.

Govt backstabbed the beleaguered farmers and overlooked the issues which affect our poor farmers and it also failed to address the farm sector distress. For last 4 years the government took the route of squeezing prices of farm produce in order to contain inflation and when they realised its mistake the damage had been done. The ill conceived Demonetisation further damaged cash-driven agricultural production and agricultural trade.

Two failed monsoons also didn’t help in improving the lot of farmers. The Govt had earlier promised to increase the MSP by 50% but failed miserably and now they are promising to double it by 2022 which looks almost impossible. Farmers are no fool and they have begun showing their anger and frustration at the polling stations.

The Govt again resorted to grand announcements which they have been making since they came to power. We admit that to find courage in the last year of a Govt’s tenure is not easy and that especially after the Gujarat poll result and with likely possibility of the by-election results which was to be announced on the Budget Day. Nevertheless, some bold steps were needed but courage was in short supply yesterday. We got a budget which lacked vision and without any focus. The current Budget of Modi Govt failed on every count.

With so much of emphasis on fiscal consolidation, it failed the test when it mattered. The revised estimate of every deficit has exceeded the Budget estimate. The most notable failure was on account of the Fiscal Deficit 3.5% against 3.2%. It failed the most important test of addressing unemployment. The Govt should know that Mudra loans of average size Rs 43,000 do not create jobs and a new EPFO registration also does not mean a new job.

It is Private investments which create jobs, but investments have stalled. SMEs is another sector which create jobs, but many SMEs have shut down and many more have cut down on their production which in turn has affected jobs. Credit growth too creates jobs, but currently credit to “industry” ratio is growing at abysmal 2.1 % which is not enough to generate new employment.

The Economic Survey of 2018 candidly confessed that the three challenges the government had not addressed adequately in the last four years are agriculture, employment and education. The ASER and NAS reports are a severe indictment of the Central and state governments on education and the National Family Health Survey 2015-16 tell the sorry state of affair in healthcare.

The Finance Minister must have been looking at the 2019 elections and the biggest announcement was made in the form of world’s largest government funded health care programme through which health cover of 5 lakh per household to 10 crore families will be provided.

The Govt merely allocated Rs 6,552 cr to the MSME sector as compared to Rs 6,481 cr last year which is shocking. It is important to mention here that the MSME sector contributes towards 40% of manufacturing and 45% of exports in India. The government is only keen on collecting taxes from the MSMEs and is least concerned about providing them social security or extending any benefit. The allocation to the ministry of skill development is merely Rs3,400 crore, which clearly shows the vision of the government towards Skill India Mission.”

Under Obamacare subsidies covering around 26 million families was estimated to cost $42 billion in 2017. Modicare covering 100 million families allocates $300 million! Even assuming healthcare in India costs one-tenth of US, Modi Govt will still need at least $15 billion a year.

The budget has also cut down the outlays on many critical schemes such as Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana, National Drinking Water Mission, Swachh Bharat Mission, National Health Mission, Gram Jyoti Yojana etc. It is obvious that government has run out of ideas and is falling back on rhetorics, acronyms and slogans but truth is that now people are tired with such posturing and have lost their patience with the Govt.


The US presidential elections and future of India-US relations




Donald Trump Joe Biden

As the coronavirus pandemic dominates global news in the United States, progress toward the next presidential election scheduled to be held on November 3 moves slowly forward. President Donald Trump had no real opposition in the Republican party and is running for re-election. And it has now become apparent that former Vice President Joe Biden will be his opponent as the Democratic candidate for president.

What would a Trump victory bode for the future of US-India relations? What would a Biden victory bode? Let me answer each of those questions in turn.

Given the love fests of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ‘Howdy Modi’ event in Houston, Texas, in which Trump participated in September of 2019, and Trump’s ‘Namaste Trump’ event hosted by Modi in India in February of this year, it might be assumed that the future for US-India relations is a splendid one. This would be an incorrect assumption.

Both of these events were more symbolic than substantive. Trump’s participation in them undoubtedly helped to persuade some — perhaps many — Indian American Modi supporters who voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016 to cast their ballots for Trump in 2020. Trump’s campaign team took steps to ensure this by holding an event at his Mar-a-Lago resort in which a group of prominent Indian Americans announced their plans to work for his re-election and to mobilize Indian Americans on his behalf.

To understand the future potential of India’s relations with the US. with Trump as president, however, it is necessary to look beyond these political moves and to examine the present state of those relations and Trump’s personal style.

In a word, the best way to characterize the current relations between the US and India is “functional”. The relationship was relatively good for the first two years of Trump’s presidency. In fact, near the end of 2018, Alice Wells, the Acting Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asia, was quoted in the media s saying: “This has been a landmark year for US-India ties as we build out stronger relationships across the board.”

Then, in 2019, the relations went off the track in the first half of the year after the US and India got into a tit-for-tat tariff war after the US terminated India’s Generalized System of Preferences which allowed India to send certain goods to the US duty-free. There have been continuing efforts to structure a “modest” trade deal since then. It was thought there might be some type of deal done in September of 2019 while Modi was in the US by year’s end, and then during Trump’s India visit. But, as of today, there is still no deal.

This inability to get any meaningful trade agreement in place speaks volumes about India’s potential future relations with India with Trump as president. So, too does Trump’s style.

Trump’s campaign slogans this time around are “Keep America Great” and “Promises Made, Promises Kept.” Trump is not a policy wonk and most of his effort will go toward “America First”. This involves making the US more isolated by withdrawing from international agreements, restructuring trade agreements, emphasizing building walls to stop immigrants at the border, using tariffs to block trade with countries who are taking away American jobs, and confronting businesses who are allegedlly stealing American trade secrets.

This perspective suggests what India can expect for its relations with the US if it has to deal with Trump for a second term as president. The relations will stay functional at best. As I have said before, that’s because the words partnership, cooperation and collaboration are not in Trump’s vocabulary. Nationalism, isolationism and protectionism are.

Joe Biden stands in stark contrast to President Trump both professionally and personally. Biden is a strategic thinker and doer with a solid eight-year track record of leadership experience as Vice-President in forging alliances that have made a difference around the world and he has also been a long-standing friend of India.

He was chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and a leading advocate for the Congressional passage of the Indo-US civic nuclear deal in 2005. At a dinner convened 10 years later in 2015 by the Confederation of Indian Industry and the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Vice President Biden discussed the tremendous joint progress that had been made by the two countries in the past and declared “We are on the cusp of a sea change decade.”

Early in his campaign for the Democratic nomination for president in July of 2019, in laying out his foreign policy vision, Biden stated that the US had to reach out to India and other Asian partners to strengthen ties with them. The items on Biden’s foreign policy agenda for strengthening which are of importance for India include climate change, nuclear proliferation and cyberwarfare.

During his vice presidency, Biden worked side by side with President Barack Obama to do things that would contribute to achieving Obama’s vision stated in 2010 of India and America being “indispensable partners in meeting the challenges of our time.” In 2020, those challenges are even greater than they were a decade ago.

That is why it is so essential that India and the US develop a strategic relationship that enables them to become those indispensable partners. That can happen if Biden assumes the presidency on January 20, 2021. It cannot happen if Donald Trump remains as president for a second term.

The results of this upcoming election in the US matter greatly for the future of the United States. They matter greatly for the future of India-US relations as well. Time and the American electorate will tell what that future will be.

(Frank F. Islam is an entrepreneur, civic and thought leader based in Washington DC. The views expressed here are personal)

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Covid-19 toll across world crosses 35,000

The COVID-19 is affecting 132 countries and territories around the world.



Patients infected with the novel coronavirus

New Delhi, March 30 : The death toll around the world due to coronavirus crossed 35,000 on Monday evening, with Italy heading the list of 35,097 deaths with 10,779, while the number of cumulative cases rose to 737,929, with US leading with 143,055 of them, as per data from the Johns Hopkins University’s Coronavirus Resource Centre.

Spain was second with 7,340 deaths, followed by China with 3,308 (3,186 of them in Hubei where the outbreak was first recorded), Iran with 2,757 deaths, France with 2,606 deaths, the US with 2,513 (776 of them in New York) and the UK with1,228 deaths.

In number of cases, Italy was second with 97,689, followed by Spain with 85,195, China with 82,198, Germany with 62,435, Iran with 41,495 and France with 40,747.

Meanwhile, 156,652 people around the world had recovered, with nearly half of them (75,923) in China, followed by 16,780 in Spain, 13,911 in Iran and 13,030 in Italy.

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45% of Indians do not back up their data, files: Survey

The survey was conducted among 728 Avast and AVG users between February 20-March 25.




Data Privacy

New Delhi, March 30 : Nearly half of Indians do not back up because they think their data or files are not important enough and most of those who back up their data, do it once a month, a survey said on Monday.

Other reasons cited by the respondents for not backing up their data included not knowing how to do it, not having time and forgetting about it, according to the survey by cybersecurity company Avast.

“It could be that many aren’t aware they are backing up, as it could be happening automatically, in the background, however, others really might not be backing up at all, thinking it is not worth it,” Luis Corrons, Security Evangelist at Avast, said in a statement.

“Losing personal documents, photos and videos can be a painful experience and it’s not until this happens that they realize how valuable it actually is,” Corrons added.

Of those who do back up their data, nearly 42 per cent Indians back up to a cloud storage, 36 42 per cent back up their data to an external hard drive, 23 42 per cent back up to a USB or flash disk, 18 42 per cent back up their phone to their PC, and 10 42 per cent back up to a network storage drive, the results showed.

Corrons recommended to back up data to two different locations, like the cloud, and a physical storage, like an external hard drive.

When it comes to iPhone and Android phone owners, the percentage that backs up is nearly the same, 69 per cent and 70 per cent respectively.

The percentage of smartphone owners that don’t know how to back up their data does not vary much between iPhone and Android owners, with 13 per cent and 17 per cent claiming not knowing how to, respectively, the study revealed.

Data loss can be caused by users accidentally deleting their data themselves, hardware damage and failure, as well as malware, causing valuable data such as photos, videos, documents, and messages to be lost forever.

Ransomware and other malware, such as wipers, can either encrypt or completely destroy files, and there is no guarantee that files can be decrypted if a ransom is paid.

The survey was conducted among 728 Avast and AVG users between February 20-March 25.

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