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NDA may fall 15 seats short of majority, says survey

The survey was done after the results of assembly polls in five states including Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh where Congress has formed governments.



Modi Shah

New Delhi, Jan 6 : The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance at the Centre may fall nearly 15 seats short of the magic mark of 272 in the 543-seat Lok Sabha, if elections are held now, says the India TV-CNX opinion poll.

According to the survey, conducted between December 15-25 at the fag end of last year in all 543 parliamentary constituencies, the NDA may get 257 seats and the Congress-led UPA (minus SP and BSP) may get 146 seats, far off the magic mark.

The survey was done after the results of assembly polls in five states including Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh where Congress has formed governments.

The survey said on Saturday that key to government formation could lie in the hands of ‘others’ who may get 140 seats in a House of 543.

‘Others’ include Samajwadi Party, BSP, AIADMK, Trinamool Congress, Telangana Rashtra Samithi, Biju Janata Dal, YSR Congress Party, Left Front, PDP of Mehbooba Mufti, AIUDF of Badruddin Ajmal, AIMIM of Asaduddin Owaisi, INLD, Aam Aadmi Party, JVM(P), AMMK of Tamil Nadu and independent MPs.

NDA includes the ruling BJP, Shiv Sena, Akali Dal, JD(U), Mizo National Front, Apna Dal, Sikkim Democratic Front, LJP of Ramvilas Paswan, NPP of Meghalaya, INRC of Puducherry, PMK and NDPP of Nagaland.

An India TV release said that UPA includes the main opposition Congress, Rashtriya Janata Dal, DMK, TDP, Sharad Pawar’s NCP, Devegowda’s JD(S), Ajit Singh’s RLD, National Conference, RSP, JMM, IUML, Kerala Congress (Mani) and RLSP.

The earlier nationwide survey conducted by India TV-CNX in November, before the assembly polls, had given NDA a clear majority with 281 seats, UPA 124, and ‘Others’ 138. Since then there has been a reduction of 24 seats in NDA and an addition of 22 seats in UPA, says the survey.

The survey says that NDA could get 37.15 per cent votes, UPA 29.92 per cent and `others’ 32.93 per cent.

Within the NDA, BJP may win 223 seats, Shiv Sena 8, JD(U) 11, Akali Dal 5, LJP 3, PMK 1, NDPP 1, AINRC 1, NPP 1, SDF 1, Apna Dal 1, and MNF 1.

The survey said that Congress may win 85 seats (almost double that it won in 2014), DMK 21, Lalu Prasad’s RJD 10, NCP 9, JMM 4, JD(S) 4, RLD 2, RLSP 1, RSP 1, IUML 2, TDP 4, JK National Conference 2, and Kerala Congress (M) 1.

Among ‘others’, Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress could get 26 seats, Samajwadi Party 20, Mayawati’s BSP 15, YSR Congress 19, Telangana Rashtra Samithi 16, Biju Janata Dal 13, AIADMK 10, AMMK 4, Left Front 8, Aam Aadmi Party 2, AIUDF 2, PDP 1, JVM (P) 1 and AIMIM 1.

State wise break up of seat prediction is: Uttar Pradesh: BJP 40, BSP 15, SP 20, Congress 2, RLD 2, Apna Dal 1; Uttarakhand: BJP 4, Congress 1; Rajasthan: BJP 15, Congress 10; West Bengal: Trinamool Congress 26, BJP 10, Congress 2, Left Front 4; Odisha: Biju Janata Dal 13, BJP 8; Madhya Pradesh: BJP 18, Congress 11; Chhattisgarh: BJP 5, Congress 6; Punjab: Congress 7, Akali Dal 5, AAP 1; Haryana: BJP 8, Congress 2; Bihar: BJP 13, RJD 10, JD(U) 11, Congress 2, LJP 3, RLSP 1; Jharkhand: BJP 7, JMM 4, Congress 2, JVM(P) 1; Gujarat : BJP 24, Congress 2; Himachal Pradesh: BJP 4; Maharashtra: BJP 22, Shiv Sena 8, Congress 9, NCP 9; Goa: BJP 1, Congress 1; Tamil Nadu: DMK 21, AIADMK 10, AMMK 4, Congress 3, PMK 1;A Andhra Pradesh: YSR Congress 19, TDP 4, Congress 2; Telangana: Telangana Rashtra Samithi 16, AIMIM 1; Karnataka: BJP 15, Congress 9, JD(S) 4; Kerala: Congress 8, Left Front 5, IUML 2, BJP 1, KC(M) 1, RSP 1, Independent 2; Jammu & Kashmir: BJP 2, NC 2, Congress 1, PDP 1; Assam: BJP 12, AIUDF 2; Arunachal Pradesh: BJP 2; Mizoram: MNF 1; Manipur: BJP 2; Meghalaya: Congress 1, NPP 1; Tripura: BJP 1, CPI(M) 1; Nagaland: NDPP 1, NPF 1; Sikkim: SDF 1; Delhi: BJP 5, AAP 1, Congress 1; Chandigarh: BJP 1; Andaman & Nicobar: BJP 1; Dadra, Nagar Haveli: BJP1; Daman & Diu: BJP 1; Lakshadweep: Congress 1; Puducherry: INRC 1.

According to the release, research and survey agency CNX gave 54,300 respondents structured questionnaire across 543 parliamentary constituencies, covering 1,086 assembly constituencies, with an average of 100 respondents in each Lok Sabha constituency. Those interviewed included 27,832 males and 26,408 females in the age group 18 to 60 years.

The survey, the release said, covered both residential and business areas, remote and key localities, including upper middle class colonies. It said that the sample respondents came from all walks of life, including cobblers, tailors, barbers, daily wage labourers, small shopkeepers, mechanics, medical practitioners, auto-taxi drivers and real estate dealers.

The next Lok Sabha elections would be held in April-May.


‘Operation Shakti’ in the vanguard of Congress march to LS polls




New Delhi, Jan 21 : To understand what was at the core of Operation Shakti, IANS caught up with its centrifuge Praveen Chakravarty to understand what the Congress was attempting for the BJP had them on the run till recently.

As he says, “I was quite sanguine initially on this whole metamorphosis but when I saw the Congress President calling a worker by name and talking to him and the response that he was getting, I realised that the wisdom of the crowds could not be faulted, involve the people in everything which is the real offshoot of true democracy or peoplecracy.

“That is how 30,000 people were surveyed in Delhi to find out who should be Congress President for Delhi.

“In fact every candidate was selected in the three north and middle India states using this interface, including the Chief Ministers. The template being ‘Wisdom of the Crowds’, a seminal book by James Surowiecki, New Yorker business columnist with boundless erudition explores the simple idea of large groups of people are smarter than an elite few, no matter how brilliant and better at solving problems, fostering innovation, coming to wise decisions and even predicting the future.

“Data is available, my experience and expertise as a political scientist helped and one found over a six month period that data is pure gold and that is what one needed to plug and play into.”

Apparently, the Congress President is an extraordinary believer in the objectivity of data and the primacy of this being the gold standard to crack the election code.

Chakravarty, a former Goldman Sachs Wall Street banker — who worked with Nandan Nilekani in the past in UIDAI and then in Manmohan Singh’s PMO — the Wharton-educated data scientist known as ‘Chucky’ says, “We have learned a lot from these state elections — what worked, what didn’t — and have started transposing this learning for the Lok Sabha elections.

“Plans are now afoot to craft our campaign accordingly, this is work in progress and it it will be done after collecting ground zero feedback from multiple locations.

“It will be ground up in terms of choice of candidate, mediums of communication, issues at hand, the whole ball of wax. All my output goes directly to the Congress President only. He then gives direction on the way forward.”

The battle of 2019 will be fought across 2,00,000 polling booths and the issues will vary from place to place.

For instance in the state elections, just to give a flavour, the Congress found that landless farmers and youth were livid over in DeMo in Bhopal. Upper caste wanted reservation somewhere else etc.

Chucky studied at BITS Pilani and worked with IBM in Japan and at Microsoft on Windows 95 and did his Masters from Wharton before plunging into the high jinks world of investment banking only to move back to India in 2005.

His belief is that there is no general election in India, it is a sum of parts as 29 states go to the polls at the same time.

As he added, “National election is a myth. Our approach is to attack each state differently for every state has myriad problems. Our incessant surveys and people inputs have shown us that Notebandi resulted in a scarcity of jobs, it transcended across class, gender, economic strata. It’s overnight announcement in that it became law as of midnight November 8, broke the back of the people in this country.”

The Congress is buoyant on its Gabbar Singh Tax stratagem which it claims has worked. They will take on an incumbent in Narendra Modi but a defiant Prime Minister whose people connect skills are unquestionable. Somewhere in this convoluted narrative, the Congress is expected to focus on the economy for it reckons that the economy is resembling a shipwreck.

At the vanguard of the Congress electioneering campaign will be “scarcity of jobs, pricing erosion for farmers, ever-lowering demand for MSMES, another casualty of ‘notebandi’, which will bring the focus back on the economy and how it is hurting people of all hues”.

Chucky also confirmed that another imperative was the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), which worked consistently with the voter as the GOP tried to pinpoint areas of economic weakness which included the emasculation of the venerable institution.

The Congress morale is upbeat as if it has been given an adrenaline shot, winning helps and three states are like ‘sone pe suhaga’. New elements have been introduced in the Congress campaign, there is freshness in its approach in the main people connect.

The BJP won 62 out of 65 LS seats in the 2014 general elections in Rajasthan, MP and Chattisgarh. Empirical data from these state polls reveals that they have lost 50 of these if LS polls were to take place today. Of course, state polls, by polls and general hustings are fought on different issues.

In parallel with the general elections, three important states will go to the polls — Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and possibly Jammu and Kashmir.

Immediately after the national polls, Maharashtra, Haryana and Jharkhand will go to polls.

The Congress won 206 seats in the 2009 polls to romp home as the single largest party, but by December 2013, after various state polls, the total had been reduced to 106 if one was to collate assembly poll data.

So, if the Congress ended up with 44 in May 2014, it was no surprise, for the erosion was rapid and severe. Not a similar litmus test awaits the BJP besieged by incumbency.

(The first part of the story was carried on Sunday by IANS)

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Congress, opposition doing negative politics over EVMs sensing defeat in 2019 elections: BJP

His remarks came soon after a person named Syed Suja, who claimed that he was part of the team which designed EVMs in India.



New Delhi, Jan 21 (IANS) Accusing the Congress and other opposition parties of indulging in ‘negative politics’ over the electreonic voting machines (EVMs), the BJP on Monday hit out at them, saying that sensing defeat in the coming elections, they have started spreading such rumours.

“There are a few powers behind the hacking, which has hacked the brain of Congress and Congress is working with that mindset,” Union Minister Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi told reporters here.

His remarks came soon after a person named Syed Suja, who claimed that he was part of the team which designed EVMs in India.

Defending the EVMs, Naqvi said the Election Commission (EC) has number of times asked the political parties to approach it and give evidence over the issue of hacking EVMs. “But they never approached the Commission,” Naqvi said.

“Before elections they (opposition) have started blaming EVMs as they have realised their defeat in the coming elections. They have realised the mood of the people and nation ahead of elections,” he said.

“Congress and a few of its friends are doing negative politics over EVMs,” he alleged.

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EC rejects claims of EVMs rigging in 2014, says its examining legal action



Election Commission

New Delhi, Jan 21 : The Election Commission on Monday firmly rejected claims by a US-based self-claimed cyber expert Syed Shuja that the 2014 elections were rigged, saying it was examining legal action over the “motivated slugfest”.

Soon after Shuja claimed that the 2014 elections were rigged, the Election Commission in statement said, “It has come to the notice of Election Commission that an event claiming to demonstrate EVMs used by EC can be tampered with, has been organised in London.”

“Whereas, ECI has been wary of becoming a party to this motivated slugfest, ECI firmly stands by the empirical facts about foolproof nature of ECI EVMs deployed in elections in India,” it said.

The Commission said that it needs to be reiterated that these EVMs are manufactured in Bharat Electronics Limited (BEL) and Electronics Corporation of India Limited (ECIL) under very strict supervisory and security conditions.

“And there are rigorous Standard Operating Procedures meticulously observed at all stages under the supervision of a Committee of eminent technical experts constituted way back in 2010,” it said.

“It is being separately examined as to what legal action can and should be taken in the matter,” the Commission added.


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