Narendra Modi’s calculus bagged UP as Congress emerges victorious in 3 states


The thumping majority of BJP in Uttar Pradesh and Uttarkhand assembly elections is attributed to BJP’s game-plan of poaching upon the proven and long time leaders of their rival parties and creating bad blood among the warring factions of the Samajwadi Party.

BJP’s landslide victory in Uttar Pradesh  and majority in Uttarakhand has pointed to the fact that Indian politics has changed in a sense that a good marketing  and promotion of agendas and slogans are required coupled with maintaining low pitch of the tickets distribution on various caste groups or religious calculations at the same time poaching other party candidates with a winnnability factor.

In UP, BJP resorted to dismantling the Samjwadi Party by creating rifts among Shivpal -Mulayam Singh Yadav and Akhilesh and his supporters . The Congress blundered in allowing itself to be an appendage of the sinking ship of SP .The Congress party should have aggressively fought UP elections on its own by aggressively criticising the Samajwadi party  on the basis of worst law and order conditions, promoting Yadavs interests, Goonda Raj etc. BJP won the elections not on Modi wave but on the incumbency factor of SP and the  same issues raised by Rahul Gandhi like waiving of loans of farmers , providing Jobs to youth etc.Modi even succeeded in giving a wrong impression to poor people that demonetization has worked to their interests by showing that money of corrupt persons has been driven out of the economy. No doubt, BJP’s win in UP will strengthen Modi ‘s position at the centre and in national politics but Congress victory in Punjab, Manipur and Goa  also boosts Congress party  and provides ample opportunity to give a fierce fight to BJP in 2019.

BJP President Amit Shah stated that BJP’s wining  Uttar Pradesh assembly elections with two- thirds majority is an indication that  caste , sub castes , religion have been relegated  to the sidelines. But attention of all political parties need to be drawn to the factors that led to BJP’s crossing the historic 300 mark in Uttar Pradesh:Amit Shah worked on its political and well calculated formula of retaining upper caste votes  which is BJP’s traditional support base ,giving tickets to 50 candidates of backward castes ( non-Yadav OBC castes)  the largest since 1991 under Kalyan Singh led BJP (BJP had won 221 of the 425 seats in 1991 (including Uttarkhand in undivided UP), 69 tickets to candidates from backward castes(27 Kurmis, 20 Lodhs , 15 Jats and 7 Gurjjars) . Only 8 Yadav candidates contested on BJP tickets in these elections the lowest since 1991 and 34 dalit candidates (Kori, dhobi, Khatik, Balmiki, Nat, Beldar, Baheliya).

Besides distributing tickets on caste calculations, Amit Shah meticulously enticed  and inducted  leaders of other prominent parties of Congress and BSP  who are state president, mass leaders, with a winnability factor  into his party.BJP inducted over a dozen OBC leaders  from the BSP including Swami Prsasd Maurya   and several Congress leaders and in Uttarakhand BJP inducted several congress leaders  including Rita Bahuguna Joshi (from influential dynastic lineage) and Nand Gopal Gupta.

The tough fight given by Congress in Goa as well as Manipur  and its extraordinary performance  in Punjab is a definite pointer to the fact that Congress is going to re-emerge in Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand as a major political force and give serious challenge to BJP .Congress victory in Punjab is totally attributed to vice president Rahul Gandhi  and State leadership of Amarinder Singh who worked hard  and also highlighted the issues of corruption, drug menace by SAD-BJP government in the state .Now Congress has to change its strategy of wining the elections nationwide by contesting the elections singlehandedly  by adopting good marketing and promotion skills  and contesting the next elections including the 2019 General elections on the agendas for improving the conditions of the people  and also devising innovative strategies to create more jobs  and Rahul Gandhi ‘s team should start working in the Congress ruled states to set an example by giving a clear picture and a planned projection of how the people of respective groups and classes will be benefited under Congress rule.

arti bali

By : Arti Bali

Senior Journalist

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