No matter BJP is busy in organising theme based Yatras and had been trying to reutilize the name of Lord Ram along with the latest addition of surgical strikes as tools for the much awaited elections in UP. But deep down the line the party with a difference had failed to show any difference in the subaltern attitude towards politics.
BJP on one hand is facing internal disputes due to over indulgence of leaders from other parties who had recently swapped in. BJP was also worried about a probable split in SP which would had made things worse for them as they would had to fight with one more strong contestant in every seat in that case. BJP can now count the number of drawbacks one by one.
BJP’s chances again have become non-existent with failure of GST bill and re-emergence of Lord Ram and religion. BJP has little to show other than high voltage Modi-Optics as its 3 + years of performance (by the time of UP elections).
SP’s feud and Akhilesh’s image- BJP’s recent worry was this latest family feud where BJP kept a close eye on each and every development. The major concern was over the final result of the feud and Akhilesh’s emergence as a clean leader is giving goose bumps to BJP. He had already started executing its plan for 2017 polls and launched ‘Mission 2017’ to make people aware of its schemes and counter BJP’s influence.
BSP’s eye on muslims- Mayawati had been eying on muslims since the beginning and the latest family feud in SP had gained hands for Mayawati specially among the muslims. The whole dadri incidence has alienated Muslims and they are leaning towards BSP. The in-fighting in the first family had helped in transition of Muslims from SP to BSP. The Muslims are also unhappy with SP after the riots. A sizable chunk had already moved to BSP and some might even divert to Congress. BSP with its biggest base vote will be heavily benefited if more Muslim vote gravitates to them.In any case if Mayawti manages to become the leader of the “sarv samaj” which is comprised of Muslims, Dalits and Brahmins she will surely be the sole leader.
The fear of BSP+ Congress- Mayawati had already announced that her party would support Congress and not BJP in the upcoming UP elections. Hoping to make a comeback in the state, BSP announced support to Congress significantly because of the Muslim vote bank of the Congress. BSP had also created religion/caste-based groups to reach out to people.
Love thy enemy- BJP’s another hindrance towards the path of success is arch rival Congress, but in some other terms this time. In 2014 BJP won the states where UPA was in power and that helped them in pushing UPA out in Lok Sabha as well. But after 2015, everything got changed and BJP suffered heavily in battling non congress opposition in most of the states. The same happened in Bihar and Bengal also and the symptoms of UP are almost similar with SP and BSP. Congress is out of power from UP since 1989 and that is the inevitable & irreversible truth that BJP needs Congress as an entity to survive and that is something which might give nightmares to team Modi.
No CM face again- The major drawback is the lack of strong leadership in state level unit, they are contesting in the name of Brand Modi again. The fact that BJP has no credible face to project as CM will come to haunt them just as it did in Delhi & Bihar. Moreover, BJP has more CM aspirants than BJP workers and the list includes names of Lalji Tandon, Kalraj Mishra, Pankaj Singh, Lakshmikant Bajpai, Rajveer Singh, Yogi Adityanath and perhaps, many more. On the other hand, SP and BSP are having a strong leadership at state level, as well as district and city levels, an advantage that BJP doesn’t have.
The fear of numbers- It is a clear fact that politics is governed by numbers, the seats won by any party and the arithmetic of seats is decided by its vote share. This time vote share is the only thing that can defeat BJP, considering the vote share of various parties in LS 2014. BJP’s vote share in 2014 was 42.3% and the vote share of BSP+SP+INC adds up to 49.1%. So, if these 3 parties decide to form an alliance to defeat BJP then BJP would certainly lose (provided that the vote share for all parties remains same).
Such a scenario has also shaped up in Bihar when INC JDU and RJD had formed an alliance and defeated BJP. But in case of UP, there’s a catch, In Bihar, Lalu and Nitish have been political rivals, not enemies, but the same can’t be said about Mayawati and Mulayam who have had personal enmity between them since 90’s. So the chances of SP and BSP coming close together are very grim. But in case another Grand Alliance like alliance turns up against BJP then the vote share might result to worries.
Over dose of quotes and comments- In a bizarre move to capitalize the anti incumbency, the strategists again seem to have mistaken social media support for support on the ground and in the polling booths. Like they did in Bihar, this time also they had completely forgotten that they are now the incumbent government in the Centre, and they would be judged on “work done” rather than “work promised”, and they might pay the price quite hilariously again. Post-Bihar, especially when BJP’s image has taken a beating due to the whole intolerance conversation, UPites don’t seem to be in a mood to experiment with their political loyalties. So chances are quite low for BJP especially in such time when the leadership wants to win India’s biggest state at any cost.