New Delhi, May 14: Monsoon will hit Kerala on June 4 with a variation of two days, said private forecaster Skymet on Tuesday, adding the overall monsoon was predicted to be “below average”.
Farmer take up sowing of kharif crops such as paddy, soybean, cotton and jowar keeping the monsoon schedule in mind. This time the monsoon onset will be little later than the usual date of arrival on India’s mainland.
The overall monsoon in the country was predicted to be “below average” at 93 per cent of Long Period Average (LPA).
The average or normal rainfall in the country is defined between 96 and 104 per cent of a 50-year average for the entire four-month monsoon season or LPA, which is 887 mm.
Developing weather situation and the factors responsible for the south-west monsoon are “not favourable” this time, which may not just lead to less rainfall than the average but will make its northward progression in the country “jerky” as well, the forecaster said.
The monsoon was also likely to be “jerky” as its progression across India would not be smooth, the Skymet said. But pre-monsoon activities such as rains with thunderstorm will be strong.
Initial advancement of monsoon over Peninsular India is likely to be slow, Jatin Singh, Managing Director of Skymet, told a press conference here.
G.P. Sharma, President (Meteorology and Climate Change) at Skymet, said the situation was not “happy” this time with the risk of deficient rainfall expected in Bihar and Jharkhand as the possibility of “below normal” monsoon was for East and Northeast India.
The region was likely to see “below normal” rains of up to 92 per cent of LPA.
Central India also stares at poor monsoon.
Maharashtra’s Vidarbha, Marathwada regions, West and South Madhya Pradesh, and parts of Gujarat are at risk being rain deficient. The region is expected to be 91 per cent of LPA — lowest of all four regions in the country.
Comparatively, Northwest India and South Peninsula are expected to do “fairly well” this time with the odds in favour of rainfall being “normal”.
In Northwest region, the monsoon is expected to be in the tune of 96 per cent.
The hilly states of Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand were likely to perform better than the plains of Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and Delhi-NCR.
In South Peninsula, the expected rainfall was 95 per cent of LPA. North Karnataka and Rayalaseema of Andhra Pradesh may see poor rainfall. But Kerala and coastal Karnataka are likely to perform better.