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Market Review: After 5 weeks of gains, equity indices fall on global cues, weak rupee

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Mumbai, June 30: Breaking a five-week gaining streak, the key Indian equity indices declined in the week ended Friday, with the Nifty50 of the National Stock Exchange (NSE) falling nearly one per cent.

The indices were weighed down by global factors including escalating trade war concerns and rising crude oil prices. Further, a weak Indian rupee also eroded the investor sentiments.

According to market observers, expiry of the June derivative contracts on Thursday also added to the volatility.

However, major losses made during the week were pared as value buying lifted the key indices over one per cent on Friday.

Index-wise, the wider Nifty50 of the NSE closed the week’s trade at 10,714.30 points — down 107.55 points or 0.99 per cent — from its previous close.

The barometer 30-scrip Sensex of the BSE fell by 266.12 points or 0.75 per cent to close at 35,423.48 points on a weekly basis.

“In line with global trends, key indices tumbled last week on worries of escalating US-China trade war. Investors were concerned that trade tensions between the US and major trading partner such as China could develop into a big drag on the global economy,” said Prateek Jain, Director of Hem Securities.

Equity99’s Senior Research Analyst Rahul Sharma said: “Trading last week was volatile as traders rolled over positions in the F&O segment from the near month June 2018 series to July 2018 series.”

Concerns of rising global crude oil prices increased pressure on India’s macro-economic indicators and tightening monetary policy in major economies globally also led to outflows from emerging markets’ debt and equity, Sharma added.

The depreciating rupee added to the dampened sentiments in the market. It touched and all-time low during the week by breaching the 69 per dollar mark on Thursday.

It closed at 68.47, weakening by 63 paise from its previous week’s close of 67.84 per greenback.

In terms of investments, provisional figures from the stock exchanges showed that foreign institutional investors sold scrip worth Rs 1,380.94 crore, while the domestic institutional investors purchased stocks worth Rs 2,941.61 crore during the week.

Figures from the National Securities Depository (NSDL) revealed that foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) invested equities worth Rs 528.41 crore, or $79.66 million, in the week ended on June 29.

Sectorally, top gainers were IT, FMCG and metal indices while the the top losers were public sector banks, energy, media and realty indices, Deepak Jasani, Head of Retail Research at HDFC Securities told IANS.

The top weekly Sensex gainers were Infosys (up 4.84 per cent at Rs 1,246.45); Vedanta (up 3.11 per cent at Rs 235.75); Hindustan Unilever (up 2.13 per cent at Rs 1,641.85); Tata Consultancy Services (up 1.95 per cent at Rs 1,847.20); and Bharti AItrtel (up 1.71 per cent at Rs 381.00 per share).

The major losers were Tata Motors (down 12.61 per cent at Rs 269.30); Tata Motors (DVR) (down 12.61 per cent at Rs 158.70); ICICI Bank (down 8.43 per cent at Rs 275.50); Power Grid (down 5.66 per cent at Rs 186.65); and State Bank of India (down 5.11 per cent at Rs 259.30 per share).

IANS

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Fitch says India’s GDP to expand by 11% in FY22

It added that India’s medium-term growth to slow to around 6.5 per cent after the initial rebound.

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Fitch Ratings says India’s GDP to expand by 11% in 2021-22 after falling by 9.4% in current FY21 fiscal.

It added that India’s medium-term growth to slow to around 6.5 per cent after the initial rebound.

India’s coronavirus-induced recession has been among the most severe in the world, amid a stringent lockdown and limited direct fiscal support. The economy is now in a recovery phase that will be further supported by the rollout of vaccines in the next months and we expect GDP to expand by 11.0% in FY22 after falling by 9.4% in FY21.

However, we expect the medium-term recovery to be slow. Supply-side potential growth will be reduced by a slowdown in the rate of capital accumulation – investment has recently fallen sharply and is likely to see only a subdued recovery. This will weigh on labour productivity and our projection of supply-side potential GDP growth for the six-year period FY21 to FY26 has been lowered to 5.1% p.a. compared to our pre-pandemic projection of 7% p.a.

Our historical analysis of India’s growth performance highlights the key role played by a high investment rate in driving growth in labour productivity and GDP per capita over the last fifteen years.

But investment has fallen sharply over the last year and the need to repair corporate balance sheets and firm closures will weigh on the pace of recovery.

Constrained credit supply amid a fragile financial system is another headwind for investment. The banking sector entered the crisis with generally weak asset quality and limited capital buffers. Appetite for lending will be subdued, particularly as credit-guarantee and forbearance measures rolled out in the crisis start to be unwound.

The economy should be able to grow somewhat faster than estimated supply-side potential over the medium term following the unprecedented downturn in FY21. But our projection for the medium-term recovery path – at around 6.5% p.a. over FY23 to FY26 – would leave GDP well below its pre-pandemic trend.

The research report, “India Set for Slow Medium-Term Recovery” is available at the above link and at www.fitchratings.com.

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Maharashtra stops automatic adoption of Centre’s GST circulars

What this means is that the state would have flexibility in devising regulations to suit its interest rather than blindly following the central circulars.

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Uddhav Thackeray

New Delhi, Jan 14: In a clear case of defiance of the Centre’s authority on GST matters, the Maharashtra government has decided that the state would have the last say in the applicability of circulars defining regulations on issues of the indirect tax.

A circular issued by the Maharashtra Goods and Service Tax Department (MGSTD) on January 12 says that the state would examine all circulars issued by the Central Board of Indirect Taxes and Customs (CBIC), and upon examination, issue a separate circular regarding its applicability for the implementation of the MGST Act.

With this, the state also withdrew an earlier circular no. 39 T of 2019 that provided for deemed adoption of all circulars issued by the CBIC by the MGSTD. The state, however, said that all central circulars issued till withdrawal of this circular would enjoy status quo and would be adopted for implementation of the MGST Act.

What this means is that the state would have flexibility in devising regulations to suit its interest rather than blindly following the central circulars.

In the fourth year since the GST’s implementation, this is second major resistance mounted by states over implementation of GST laws. The states already strongly resisted the Centre’s move on GST compensation and pushed it to frame regulations that protected their interest.

“Biggest fears of model code for a federal democratic country like India are coming true even before the completion of its 4th anniversary of GST. Fight between the Centre and states over compensation for loss has already reached judiciary, and now the state government of Maharashtra has also issued clear instructions that they will have parallel set clarifications on same matters which will supersede the clarifications issued by the Central government,” said Rajat Mohan, senior partner, AMRG and Associates.

Maharashtra has justified its move suggesting that it is to maintain the integrity of communication and avoid confusion caused as to which circular instructions are to be followed. Sources, however, said it has been done as on several matters, states had a divergent view on how things needed to be implemented. In additional, unique nature operational issues in the state, created difficulties in adoption of central regulations.

Sources said that the Maharashtra government’s decision would further weaken the process of decisions being taken unanimously by the GST Council.

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Modi Govt to sell up to 10% stake in SAIL via OFS

Shares of SAIL on the BSE closed at Rs 74.70 per share, lower by 1.58 per cent from its previous close on Wednesday.

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Steel Authority of India

New Delhi, Jan 14: The Centre will sell up to 10 per cent stake in Steel Authority of India Ltd (SAIL) through offer for sale (OFS).

The OFS will take place on Thursday and Friday.

“Offer for Sale (OFS) in SAIL opens on Thursday (14.1.2021) for non-retail investors. 15th January (Friday) is for retail investors. GoI would divest 5 per cent equity with a 5 per cent greenshoe option,” said Tuhin Kanta Pandey, Secretary, Department of Investment and Public Asset Management (DIPAM) on Twitter.

The floor price for the OFS has been set at Rs 64 per share.

Shares of SAIL on the BSE closed at Rs 74.70 per share, lower by 1.58 per cent from its previous close on Wednesday.

The government is likely to miss its disinvestment target by a wide margin and the fiscal deficit is not likely to be anywhere near the target of 3.5 per cent of the GDP in 2020-21 (April 2020 to March 2021). While privatisation of firms such as Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL) and Air India has been pushed to the next fiscal due to COVID-19-related delays, tax collections have been hit hard as restrictions imposed to curb coronavirus dented incomes all around.

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