India’s uncertain economic future

Giving a major blow to the already sluggish economy, Rating agencies India Ratings and Research and Moody’s Investors  Service have downgraded Punjab National Bank’s (PNB) long-term issuer rating and deposit rating, respectively.
narendra modi

Prime Narendra Modi is celebrating his four years of BJP’s rule but India is passing through a phase of economic uncertainty as investors are dumping Indian stocks and bonds amid a stronger US dollar with the government still mulling options to wrest increasing petrol and diesel prices in the country.

Congress leader Chidambaram accused the government of not passing on the full benefits of the drop in international crude oil prices to consumers, claiming the government has made a windfall of about Rs 50,000 crore. He said that the petrol and diesel should have been selling at least Rs 15 less per litre if the government had passed on the entire benefit.

Modi has betrayed the youth by not fulfilling the promise of creating 2 crore jobs annually.

The most controversial, disruptive policy of the Modi government — demonetisation was a big failure and it resulted in cascading effect as it created acute individual distress It adversely affected. The agricultural sector, real estate, slowed growth due to reduced demand, disrupted supply chains, and increased uncertainty. The argument behind imposing demonetisation failed to meet two of its most hyped objectives in Jammu and Kashmir—dealing a severe blow to terrorism or militancy and curbing fake currency. Kashmir witnessed more incidents of militancy after demonetisation than before it.

On fake currency, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley told Parliament in July that the total counterfeit currency discovered since demonetisation is worth Rs. 11.23 crore, which is 0.0007% of all demonetised currency.

As for terrorism, an analysis of Home Ministry data (compiled by South Asia Terrorism Portal, or SATP)  from 10 months before note ban, and 10 months after shows that in Jammu and Kashmir, terror incidents rose 38% after demonetisation, the deaths of civilians climbed 2500%, and 2% more security personnel were killed.

People experienced hardships while withdrawing their own money from banks. There is a growing perception that Modi government connived with high-profile businessmen to flee the country with taxpayers’ money. People are feeling cheated as new scams continue to unfold, undermining the public’s trust in the banking, regulatory and law enforcement system.

PM is even not bothered over the increasing number of scams unearthed during his tenure of just four years, rather he ignored to address the financial frauds or real issues concerning Aam AAdmi’s problems during Mann Ki Baat and avoids to reply to the Opposition’s legitimate questions in Parliament.

India’s economy is mainly influenced by rural or agriculture, small enterprise and construction operating mainly on cash transactions was severely hit in 2016 first by the sudden banning of nearly 86% of the cash in circulation -whose effect is still evident.

Small businesses, traders and unorganised sector is facing teething troubles after the rollout of a goods and services tax (GST), the biggest tax overhaul since independence that replaced the numerous state and federal taxes in June 2017.

Modi had promised in 2014  to double farm incomes by 2022 instead, farm incomes have fallen in real terms and suicides among farmers have increased. The Modi government had promised to make India a global manufacturing hub by its flagship ‘Make in India’ programme catering to both the export and domestic markets rather China has emerged as a manufacturing hub.

No industry has been established, India’s consumer confidence has plunged, the fixed investment rate has fallen, labour-intensive businesses such as construction have slowed down, many factories have been shut down, leading to millions of people losing jobs…

The Congress President Rahul Gandhi has slammed the Modi government on the issue of unemployment as Nobel laureate Paul Krugman questioned India’s growth story projected by Narendra Modi by saying that India is facing mass unemployment of 12 million jobs.

Government’s Chief Economic Advisor Arvind Subramanian is also in agreement with Krugman, saying that he was not sure if India’s manufacturing sector will continue to generate employment as it was doing in the past. Subramanian admitted that India has missed the manufacturing bus 20-30 years ago. Rahul has rightly touched the nerve of India’s growth story by saying that farmers’ loans should be waived off  and policy should be adopted to benefit the farmers so that the agricultural sector could flourish and manufacturing units could be revived to provide mass employment.

Giving a major blow to the already sluggish economy, Rating agencies India Ratings and Research and Moody’s Investors  Service have downgraded Punjab National Bank’s (PNB) long-term issuer rating and deposit rating, respectively.

Blog: By Arti Bali,

(Senior Journalist)

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