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India May See 2.87 Lakh Covid Cases A Day By Winter 2021: MIT Study

The world may witness 249 million (24.9 crore) cases and 1.8 million (18 lakh) deaths by spring 2021 if there are no effective treatments or vaccination.

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COVID-19 pandemic

In the absence of a COVID-19 vaccine or drugs, the researchers from Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) have warned that India might record 2.87 lakh coronavirus cases per day by the end of winter 2021.

The world may witness 249 million (24.9 crore) cases and 1.8 million (18 lakh) deaths by spring 2021 if there are no effective treatments or vaccination, according to the study conducted by the researchers Hazhir Rahmandad, TY Lim and John Sterman of MIT’s Sloan School of Management.

“In this paper, we build and estimate a multi-country model of the Covid-19 pandemic at a global scale,” the study authors wrote.

Also Read: The Mysterious World Of Viruses And Why You Can’t Escape Them

For the findings, the MIT research team use a multi-country modified SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered) model, a standard mathematical model for infectious diseases used by epidemiologists, to simultaneously estimate the transmission of Covid-19 in 84 countries (4.75 billion people).

The model tracked community transmission, excluding the global travel network and instead separately estimating the date of introduction of patient zero for each country.

Within each country, the core of the model tracks the population through susceptible, pre-symptomatic, infected pre-testing, infected post-testing, and recovered states.

“Our model captures transmission dynamics for the disease, as well as how, at the country level, transmission rates vary in response to risk perception and weather, testing rates condition infection and death data, and fatality rates depend on demographics and hospitalisation,” they explained.

According to the study, the top 10 countries by projected daily infection rates at the end of winter 2021 are India, US, South Africa, Iran, Indonesia, Nigeria, Turkey, France and Germany.

Also Read: Our Live-in Virus: What Does the Real Covid Map Look Like?
India will be the worst affected country due to coronavirus followed by the US (95,000 cases per day), South Africa (21,000 cases per day) Iran (17,000 cases per day), and Indonesia (13,000 cases per day) at the end of winter 2021.

The MIT researchers also said that Infections are 12 times higher and deaths 50 per cent higher than previously reported.

“While actual cases are far greater than official reports suggest, the majority of people remain susceptible. Waiting for herd immunity is not a viable path out of the current pandemic,” Rahmandad said.

“Every community needs to keep the pandemic under control until a vaccine or treatment is widely available. A slow and half-hearted response only increases the human costs without offering much of an upside in terms of economic output,” Rahmandad noted.

Also Read: Did The Lockdown Work? What Did It Do? What Would Have Happened Without It?
As of Wednesday morning, the overall number of global COVID-19 cases has increased to more than 11.7 million, while the deaths have soared to over 543,000, according to Johns Hopkins University.

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52000 new Covid cases, 803 deaths in India in 24 hours

India has one of the lowest Case Fatality Rate (CFR) at 2.09 per cent as compared to the global average.

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New Delhi: With 52,050 new coronavirus (Covid-19) cases and 803 deaths in the last 24 hours, India’s overall caseload stood at 18,55,745 while the total fatalities increased to 38,938, data from the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare revealed on Tuesday.

The country had crossed the 18-lakh mark on Monday. Currently, 5,86,298 cases are active and 12,30,509 people have recovered from the disease.

India has one of the lowest Case Fatality Rate (CFR) at 2.09 per cent as compared to the global average.

With a recovery rate of 66.3 per cent, a total of 44,306 people were discharged in the last 24 hours, the Ministry said. In the last 24 hours, 6,61,892 samples have been tested.

Maharashtra remained the worst-hit state with 4,41,228 cases and 15,576 deaths, of which 260 occurred in the last 24 hours.

Tamil Nadu comes in second with 257,613 cases and 4,132 deaths. The state registered 98 fatalities in the last 24 hours.

Delhi, Haryana and Himachal Pradesh saw a decline in the number of active cases.

Mizoram, Tripura and Uttarakhand too witnessed active cases plummeting.

While on the global front, India remains the third worst-hit nation. As of Tuesday morning, the overall number of global coronavirus cases has topped 18.1 million mark, while the deaths have increased to over 691,000, according to the Johns Hopkins University.

As of Tuesday morning, the total number of cases stood at 18,193,291 and the fatalities rose to 6,91,642, the University’s Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) revealed in its latest update.

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COVID-19 pandemic “once in a century”, but still “in our hands”: WHO

“I’m not saying there is no solution now. Whatever happens in the next few months or years, I also believe that it’s in our hands,” he said.

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Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus WHO

Geneva, Aug 4 : The chief of the World Health Organization (WHO) said that the COVID-19 pandemic is “a once-in-a-century health crisis,” but it is still “in our hands.”

WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said at a virtual press conference on Monday that the world has never seen anything like this pandemic for decades, and its effects might last for decades more, Xinhua news agency reported.

“Since we started probably recording, this is the first ever coronavirus-caused pandemic which has two dangerous combinations: it moves fast, and at the same time it’s a killer,” the WHO chief explained.

However, he noted, although the crisis is very severe, there are still solutions and hopes.

“I’m not saying there is no solution now. Whatever happens in the next few months or years, I also believe that it’s in our hands,” he said.

“Since the outbreak started, many countries have shown that it can be controlled, or serious transmission can be suppressed,” Tedros said, adding that he has mentioned many such countries in the past, including Spain, Italy, China and South Korea.

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One person is dying of COVID-19 every seven minutes in Iran: state TV

The report said that Iran’s official coronavirus figures were based only on the number of deaths in hospitals and those who had already tested positive for the coronavirus.

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Iran Covid Case

DUBAI : One person is dying from COVID-19 every seven minutes in Iran, state television said on Monday, as the Health Ministry reported 215 new deaths from the disease and state media warned of a lack of proper social distancing.

Health Ministry spokesman Sima Sadat Lari was quoted by the state TV as saying the 215 deaths in the past 24 hours took the combined death toll to 17,405 in Iran, and the number of confirmed cases rose by 2,598 to 312,035.

State television showed several Iranians in a busy Tehran street without wearing face masks or social distancing.

Some experts have doubted the accuracy of Iran’s official coronavirus tolls. A report by the Iranian parliament’s research centre in April suggested that the coronavirus tolls might be almost twice as many as those announced by the health ministry.

The report said that Iran’s official coronavirus figures were based only on the number of deaths in hospitals and those who had already tested positive for the coronavirus.

British broadcaster BBC reported on Monday that, based on data from an anonymous source, the number of deaths in Iran might be three times higher than officially reported. Iranian health authorities denied the report and said there had been no covebakingr-up.

With COVID-19 deaths surging since restrictions were eased in mid-April, Iranian authorities have said measures to curb the spread of COVID-19 will be reimposed if health regulations are not observed. Since last month, wearing face masks in public places and covered spaces has been mandatory.

Iran’s National Coronavirus Combat Taskforce was expected to announce later on Monday whether nationwide university entrance examinations, with over 1 million participants, will take place in August. Many Iranians have called on social media for the examinations to be postponed.

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