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IMF cuts India’s FY20 growth forecast to 6%

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New Delhi, Oct 15 : The outlook for the Indian economy for the current fiscal seems to get bleaker by the day as major economic forums and institutions have of late revised the country’s GDP forecast downwards, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) being the latest in the fray.

The IMF in its World Economic Outlook released on Tuesday cut its forecast for GDP growth for financial year 2019-20 to 6 per cent, a sharp revision from its previous outlook of 7 per cent growth, released in July.

It also reduced the growth forecast for the next fiscal by 0.2 percentage points to 7 per cent.

“India’s economy is set to grow at 6.1 percent in 2019, picking up to 7 percent in 2020. The downward revision relative to the April 2019 WEO of 1.2 percentage points for 2019 and 0.5 percentage point for 2020 reflects a weaker-than-expected outlook for domestic demand,” it said.

The report, however, added that growth will be supported by the “lagged effects” of monetary policy easing, a reduction in corporate income tax rates and recent measures to address corporate and environmental regulations.

The IMF’s outlook comes days after a World Bank report pegged India’s growth rate in FY 2019-20 at 6 per cent, and the Reserve Bank of India’s latest downward revision to 6.1 per cent.

It further observed that monetary policy and broad-based structural reforms should be used to address cyclical weakness and strengthen confidence in India. A credible fiscal consolidation path is needed to bring down India’s elevated public debt over the medium term, it added.

“This should be supported by subsidy-spending rationalisation and tax base enhancing measures. Governance of public sector banks and the efficiency of their credit allocation needs strengthening, and the public sector’s role in the financial system needs to be reduced.”

Reforms to hiring and dismissal regulations would help incentivise job creation and absorb the country’s large demographic dividend, the IMF said, adding that land reforms should also be enhanced to encourage and expedite infrastructure development.

The IMF’s global outlook, also weakened as it projected the world economy to grow at 3.0 per cent in 2019, 0.2 percentage point lower than its previous estimate.

“The world economy is projected to grow at 3.0 percent in 2019 a significant drop from 2017-18 for emerging market and developing economies as well as advanced economies — before recovering to 3.4 percent in 2020,” the IMF’s outlook said.

It, however, projected a a slightly higher global growth rate for the period of 2021-24.

“This global growth pattern reflects a major downturn and projected recovery in a group of emerging market economies. By contrast, growth is expected to moderate into 2020 and beyond for a group of systemic economies comprising the United States, euro area, China, and Japan, which together account for close to half of global GDP.”

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SC seeks Centre, RBI reply on levying interest charges during moratorium

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New Delhi, May 26 : The Supreme Court on Tuesday issued notice to the Centre and Reserve Bank of India on a plea challenging the levy of interest on loan during the stipulated moratorium period.

A bench comprising Justices Ashok Bhushan, S.K. Kaul and M.R. Shah asked the Centre and RBI to file their response within a week.

The plea has been filed by a borrower, who is aggrieved by the March 27 RBI notification. This notification allows interest on the loan to be levied during the moratorium period, which has been extended up to August 31.

Senior advocate Rajiv Dutta, representing the petitioner, contended before the bench that the moratorium has been extended to 6 months, from the initial 3 months. Dutta argued that the final accounting for his client, regarding the interest should be done after the decision of the top court on the matter.

The plea argues the interest on loan during moratorium is unconstitutional, as during lockdown, people’s income has already shrunk and people are under financial crisis.

Dutta, seeking relief, insisted that his client should not be penalized, and interest should not be added to the loan amount during this period,” argued Dutta.

He also informed the apex court that replies were being filed without any formal notice being issued. The bench took this argument into consideration and issued formal notice.

On March 27, the RBI had ordered a 3-month moratorium on the payment of all kinds of installments — EMIs or credit cards or outstanding term loans — for the period between March 1, 2020 and May 31, 2020.

The plea argues the outright “capriciousness” and “arbitrariness” of the RBI notification as it acts as a burden on borrowers like the petitioner, which violates principles of natural justice.

On May 8, the apex court had allowed Solicitor General Tushar Mehta time to seek instructions from RBI and the Centre on the issue.

“While granting the relief of moratorium during the lockdown to borrowers, the action of imposition of interest during the moratorium period is completely devastating, wrong and, in a way, has taken away the benefit of imposing moratorium. This has caused hindrance in right to life guaranteed by Article 21 of the Constitution, 1950 in furtherance of right to life, including right to livelihood, which is a pre-requisite to the fundamental right guaranteed under Article 21 to people of India”, said the plea.

The petitioner said in the present scenario, when all the means of livelihood have been curtailed by the Centre by imposition of complete lockdown pan India, due to worldwide outbreak of Covid-19 pandemic and the petitioner being a citizen of India has no way to continue his work and earn livelihood, imposition of interest during the moratorium will defeat the purpose of permitting moratorium on loans.

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India’s GDP likely to contract 5% in FY 2020-21: Crisil

“We estimate the fiscal cost of this package at 1.2 per cent of GDP, which is lower than what we had assumed in our earlier estimate (when we foresaw a growth in GDP),” it said.

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New Delhi, May 26 : Days after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said that India’s GDP growth for the financial year 2020-21 may remain in the negative territory, CRISIL has projected that the country’s economy contract by 5 per cent this fiscal, downgrade from its previous estimate of 1.8 per cent growth.

In a report, Crisil said that although non-agricultural GDP is expected to contract 6 per cent, agriculture could cushion the blow by growing at 2.5 per cent.

It said “things have only gone downhill since” its previous forecast of 1.8 per cent growth on April 28.

The report noted that as per the available data, in the past 69 years, India has seen a recession only thrice, in fiscal years 1958, 1966 and 1980. The reason was the same each time, a monsoon shock that hit agriculture, then a sizeable part of the economy.

“The recession staring at us today is different. For one, agriculture could soften the blow this time by growing near its trend rate, assuming a normal monsoon. Two, the pandemic-induced lockdowns have affected most non-agriculture sectors,” it said, adding that the global disruption also has upended whatever opportunities India had on the exports front.

Laying down the factors for the downward revision GDP outlook, Crisil said that latest studies by the Public Health Foundation of India and the World Health Organization suggest the pandemic spread could peak by mid-July, implying that even if the nationwide lockdown is lifted after May 31, states with high and rising COVID-19 cases could continue with restrictions, which will be a drag on the economy.

It, however, said that on the positive side the Indian Meteorological Department expects the southwest monsoon this year to be 96-104 per cent of the long-period average, which augurs well for agriculture and crude oil prices are expected to average $30 per barrel in fiscal 2021, cushioning the economy.

Talking of the economic package recently announced by the Centre, it said that the package has some short-term measures to cushion the economy, but sets its sights majorly on reforms, most of which will have payoffs only over the medium term (more details in the next section).

“We estimate the fiscal cost of this package at 1.2 per cent of GDP, which is lower than what we had assumed in our earlier estimate (when we foresaw a growth in GDP),” it said.

It said that successive lockdowns have a non-linear and multiplicative effect on the economy and a two-month lockdown will be more than twice as debilitating as a one-month imposition, as buffers keep eroding.

Partial relaxations continue to be a hindrance to supply chains, transportation and logistics, it said, adding that unless the entire supply chain is unlocked, the impact of improved economic activity will be subdued.

“Therefore, despite the stringency of lockdown easing a tad in the third and the fourth phases, their negative impact on GDP is expected to massively outweigh the benefits from mild fiscal support and low crude oil prices, especially in the April-June quarter. Consequently, we expect the current quarter’s GDP to shrink 25 per cent on-year,” it said.

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Bharti Telecom sells 2.75% Airtel stake, raises Rs 8,433 cr

Bharti Group and Singtel, as Bharti Airtel’s largest shareholders, remain committed to the business and long-term prospects of Bharti Airtel, it said.

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New Delhi, May 26 : Bharti Telecom has sold 2.75 per cent stake in Bharti Airtel to institutional investors through an accelerated book building process in the secondary market, raising Rs 8,433 crore.

The allocation was done to over 50 accounts with the top 10 getting two-third of it, Bharti Telecom said in a statement, here on Tuesday.

The sale proceeds would be used to repay promoter holding company’s debt, it said.

Bharti Group and Singtel, as Bharti Airtel’s largest shareholders, remain committed to the business and long-term prospects of Bharti Airtel, it said.

“The strong and wide response received from a diverse mix of investors across geographies, even during challenging global macro-economic conditions, shows the competitive strength and the long-term prospects of Bharti Airtel,” said Harjeet Kohli, Group Director, Bharti Enterprises.

“On the back of such a strong demand from international and domestic investors, the amount raised was increased to $1.15 billion,” he said.

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