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GST sub-rates, earnings results to influence equity markets

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Global Influence on Indian Stock Market

Mumbai, May 14 : Clarity on GST sub-rates along with ongoing quarterly results season and a firm rupee are expected to influence investors’ sentiments in the equity markets, market observers have opined.
According to analysts, the outcome of the GST Council’s meet, slated to be held on May 18-19 in Srinagar, will be a “crucial determining” factor for indices’ movement during the week commencing May 15.

The council, chaired by Finance Minister Arun Jaitley, is scheduled to finalise the sub-rates of different commodities and services. The single tax regime on the supply of goods and services is proposed to be rolled out on July 1.

“Going ahead, market performance is expected to be determined by the earnings trajectory and the implementation of GST,” D.K. Aggarwal, Chairman and Managing Director, SMC Investments and Advisors, told IANS.

“The market is expected to continue to enjoy positive sentiments and Nifty may touch 9,500 (points) in the coming weeks.”

Apart from the outcome of the GST Council’s meet, investors will be looking forward to the upcoming quarterly results. Major entities like State Bank of India, Punjab National Bank, Bank of Baroda, Bajaj Auto, Tata Power, Tata Steel and Hindustan Unilever are expected to announce their quarterly results.

“The earnings growth vis-a-vis the expectations would continue to influence the markets in the coming week. So far, they have been mixed,” Devendra Nevgi, Chief Executive of Zyfin Advisors, told IANS.

“News- and event-driven action would continue in sectors such as consumer (good monsoon) and banks (better NPA recognition).”

According to Nevgi, the stock market movement will also depend on the investment inflows from foreign and domestic participants.

“The FPI (foreign portfolio investors) inflows have started turning positive since the past few days while the DII (domestic institutional investors) have turned negative,” Nevgi said.

“The markets will also be supported by the larger mutual funds inflows, which would be the dominating feature of the markets in coming times, as non-equity asset classes remain underperforming.”

In terms of investments, figures from the National Securities Depository (NSDL) have revealed that FPIs invested Rs 1,970.2 crore, or $305.15 million, in the equities segment during the May 8-12 week.

The provisional figures from stock exchanges showed that foreign institutional investors (FIIs) bought stocks worth Rs 2,832.27 crore, while DIIs divested scrip worth Rs 1,297.49 crore.

Currency-wise, the Indian rupee is expected to remain firm. It strengthened by eight paise to 64.30 against a US dollar on May 12.

“High real rates and conservative monetary and fiscal policy would continue to keep foreign investors interested in rupee assets,” Anindya Banerjee, Associate Vice President for currency derivaties at Kotak Securities, told IANS.

“We continue to expect more appreciation over the medium term. We can see rupee heading towards 62.00-62.50 over the medium term.”

On technical-levels, NSE Nifty is expected to chart a northward course during the next week.

“While the Nifty has taken a breather, the underlying trend continues to remain up till 9,269 (points level) is protected,” Deepak Jasani, Head – Retail Research, HDFC Securities, told IANS.

“The uptrend could resume once the immediate resistance of 9,450 (points) is taken out.”

Last week, the key equities markets — NSE Nifty and BSE Sensex — turned bullish on forecast of healthy monsoon rains.

In addition, the substantial inflow of foreign funds and global cues kept investors’ sentiments buoyed.

However, gains were pared due to a sell-off led by banking stocks on last Friday.

Consequently, the S&P BSE Sensex augmented by 329.35 points or 1.10 per cent to 30,188.15 points, and the NSE Nifty moved up by 115.6 points or 1.24 per cent to 9,400.90 points.

By : Rohit Vaid

(Rohit Vaid can be contacted at [email protected])

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Home loan borrowers can expect fall in rates

Earlier this month, the RBI cut the benchmark interest rate by 0.25 per cent to 6.25 per cent. But PSU and private banks are yet to pass on the resultant benefits to customers.

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Home auto loan

New Delhi, Feb 18 (IANS) Taking note that benefits of lower interest rates were not reaching consumers, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das will meet the public and the private sector banks on February 21 to persuade them to pass on the benefits.

“I will meet the private and public sector banks Chief Executive Officers and managing directors on February 21 over this because transmission of monetary policy decisions is important. We will see what needs to be done,” he said after a customary post-budget meeting of the RBI Board with the Finance Minister.

Earlier this month, the RBI cut the benchmark interest rate by 0.25 per cent to 6.25 per cent. But PSU and private banks are yet to pass on the resultant benefits to customers.

The RBI is mandated to see whether banks are cutting lending rates in line with repo rates. For this, the RBI will start linking interest rates to external benchmarks replacing MCLR.

The home loan borrowers have often complained about the opacity of interest rate fixing mechanism, which allows banks to not pass on the rate cut benefits to customers.

As and when the external benchmark rate changes, it will reflect in the change in interest rate of the loan as well.

The RBI had earlier proposed that from April 1, 2019, banks would have to use external benchmarks instead of the present system of internal benchmarks — Prime Lending Rate (PLR), base rate based on PLR, and Marginal Cost of Lending Rate (MCLR) to ascertain the lending rates.

He said the RBI has received several comments on external benchmarks and is examining them.

On the government’s expectation to receive Rs 28,000 crore interim dividend from the RBI, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley said, “the RBI decides independently on the quantum of interim dividend to be paid to the Centre and a central bank committee is examining the issue.”

He said it was the prerogative of the central bank to decide the quantum of RBI’s interim dividend to be paid to the government.

Das said a decision on the issue was yet to be taken and a committee was going into the issue. “Once the matter is decided, it will be communicated. I cannot pre-judge it,” he said.

The RBI’s audit board recently took up the matter. The RBI that follows the July-June fiscal year has transferred Rs 40,000 crore in the current fiscal as interim dividend. The Finance Ministry wants a formal commitment on Rs 28,000 crore interim dividend. If the RBI agrees to pay Rs 28,000 crore as interim dividend, the total surplus transfer to the government in the current fiscal would total Rs 68,000 crore.

Das declined to comment on the RBI scrutiny of two private lenders — Yes Bank and Kotak Bank. He said the Kotak Bank case is sub judice with the Bombay High Court and the issue of Yes Bank is between it and the regulator. It’s RBI’s endeavour to constructively engage with all the regulated enitites for compliance of rules and regulations, he added.

On loans to small businesses, he said the RBI has come out with the restructuring package for SMEs. Now it was up to banks to restructure loans of the eligible MSMEs as per the guidelines, he added.

The Governor said there is some credit growth visible and the aggregate flow of credit to the commercial sector has shown improvement. However, it was not broad based and was not flowing into various sectors the way it should, he added.

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Delhi traders demand boycott of Pakistani, Chinese goods

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General Secretary Praveen Khandelwal

New Delhi, Feb 18 (IANS) Infuriated at the Pulwama blast, retailers from across the national capital on Monday called for boycott of Pakistani and Chinese goods from being sold in the markets and observed a general “bandh” as a mark of respect to the martyrs.

According to the Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT) secretary general Praveen Khandelwal, the bandh was observed in prominent Delhi markets including Chandani Chowk, Bhagirath Place, Khari Baoli, Naya Bazar, Chawri Bazar, Kashmiri Gate, Sadar Bazar and Karol Bagh.

“In the current scenario, the government should impose absolute ban on trade with Pakistan. Goods worth about Rs 3,500 crore are being imported from Pakistan annually.

“The CAIT has also demanded of the government to levy at least 300 per cent customs duty on goods being imported from China, so that import from China is discouraged,” Khandelwal told IANS.

The traders also burnt the effigy of “Pakistani Terrorism”.

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Rising crude prices, Indo-Pakistan tension drag Sensex 310 pts lower

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Sensex equity Nifty

Mumbai, Feb 18: Rising global crude oil prices, along with heightened tensions between India and Pakistan, dragged the Indian equity market on Monday, with the key equity indices closing lower for the 8th consecutive session despite optimism following the US-China trade talks.

The rising Brent crude prices weakened the Indian currency by 12 paise on Monday. Rupee closed at Rs 71.34 per dollar from its previous close of 71.22.

Besides, the equity market also reacted negatively to the outflow of foreign funds seen in the last few trading sessions.

The S&P BSE Sensex closed 310.51 points or 0.87 per cent lower at 35,498.44 from its previous close of 35,808.95, while the Nifty ended 83.45 points lower at 10,640.95.

“Domestic markets are seeing a decoupling from global markets that further indicates the fact that we are moving towards a macroeconomic event such as the general elections, one of the reasons why this decoupling is seen in the last 2-3 months,” said Mustafa Nadeem, CEO, Epic Research.

“Crude oil prices (WTI) may further have an impact on the Indian equity market since it has been on the rise and taking well support over $50-mark for the last couple of weeks.”

Lately, investors have also grown cautious due to the Indo-Pak tensions following the Pulwama terrorist attack. Indian withdrew the Most Favoured Nation (MFN) status accorded to Pakistan and imposed 200 per cent customs duty on imports from there.

Analysts said that worsening relation0s between India and Pakistan have a bearing on the captital inflow. This was one of the reasons for the acceleration of outflows of foreign funds.

“Market remained on a selling spree as reducing foreign inflows due to fear of escalation of tensions at the border impacted the sentiment,” said Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Financial Services.

“Volatility in the market may continue due to lack of domestic triggers as investors are likely to remain cautious.”

Top gainers on the BSE were ONGC, up 1.70 per cent at 137.40, followed by Tata Motors, Axis Bank, Vedanta and NTPC, which gained up to 1.15 per cent.

Among the top laggards were TCS, down over 3 pet cent, followed by Yes Bank, ITC, Sun Pharma, Reliance Industries and Coal India.

On Friday, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold shares to the tune of Rs 966.43 crore, while the domestic institutional investors (DIIs) bought Rs 853.25 crore worth of scrips.

IANS

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