Although SP supremo Mulayam Singh Yadav is trying hard to arrange all likeminded leaders on the eve of party’s silver jubilee functions in order to reshape a probable Grand Alliance. For the same reasons Shivpal had recently met RLD chief Chowdhary Ajit Singh and Mulayam had invited Nitish and Lalu for the silver jubilee functions. Ajit had assured about his presence but still there is no clarity about presence of Nitish and Lalu as the date is colliding with Bihar’s biggest festival of Chatth. But Mulayam desperately wants to use this Grand Alliance in order to stop Modi’s chariot like it did in Bihar.
On the other hand there is something cooking in camp of Akhilesh where his advisors are busy making calculations for a probable alliance in upcoming elections. Although they have not opened their cards yet, but the best deal for Akhilesh led SP lies with Congress who can be an eligible partner for the crucial elections ahead. In case it materializes here are the five reasons why Congress can be a better and peaceful partner to Akhilesh rather than others in the upcoming poll battle.
1- No rift for CM portfolio– Even though Congress had fielded veteran leader Sheila Dikshit as probable CM candidate but in case of a coalition, Congress is well aware of the fact that any alliance led by chief minister Akhilesh Yadav has the potential to upstage BJP and BSP’s bid for the throne of Lucknow. Akhilesh had tried hard to maintain his clean image and he is dealing harsh with criminal candidates of his party. Congress can also use his clean image in order to re-instate the political strength in UP. In any case, neither Congress will have any problem to accept Akhilesh as leader like they did for Nitish in Bihar and nor they will face any internal rebellion for the same.
2- Seat Division– Congress had received more than two dozen seats in 2012 and SP had received 224 of the 403 seats in 2012. So if SP decides to contest 300-350 seats out of 403, they can still strike a balance between accommodating party aspirants and hammering a seat sharing agreement with Congress which will still get around 100 seats and that will also add up to their number of seats due to additional support of SP. The same arithmetic had helped Congress in claiming a good number of seats in Bihar.
3- No confusion among muslims– This probable alliance between SP and INC could also easily swing the 19% Muslim vote decisively in their favour. The muslim votes which were going towards BSP after the family feud in SP will come back easily under this umbrella. As per the voting tradition, the muslims of Uttar Pradesh use to vote for any party or candidate who gives a tough challenge to BJP and SP+INC can always be a better camp for muslims.
4- The number mathematics– The past records had shown that something close to 30 percent is the number for claiming governance in UP. As per the records, BSP had received 30.43% votes in 2007 assembly election and they won a simple majority in the state. In 2012 SP had received 29.13% votes and came with a majority while BSP and BJP had received 25.91% and 15% votes respectively. In 2014 BJP swept with 42.63% votes and claimed the highest number of seats, SP got 22.35% votes and Congress got7.53% and both of their votes add up to around 30 percent which can be a magical figure for 2017 in case they add up.
5- Head to head with BJP– If Akhilesh led SP and INC can concrete an alliance they can be a head to head rival for BJP and Modi. Mayawati in such conditions might move to number three as the fight will be directly in between BJP and SP+INC. In previous battles of Delhi and Bihar, BJP had lost due to tough challenges from parties with extremely opposite ideologies. Congress and Akhilesh can jointly counter Modi on communal issues and other incidents and can garner the secular minded support easily. Moreover, BJP will have no hands to counter such an alliance because of scarcity of local leaders and presence of loose coalition partners like Apna dal and SBSP.