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Equity markets to take cues from macro data, global developments this week

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BSE

The Indian stock markets during the upcoming week are expected to take directions from domestic macro-economic data points slated to be released from March 12 onwards.

Apart from the data, developments on the global trade front, along with the direction of foreign funds, will also determine the course of key Indian equity indices, said market observers.

“Market participants will keep a close eye on domestic macro-economic data releases. The government will announce inflation data based on consumer price index (CPI) for February and industrial production data (Index of Industrial Production, IIP) for January on March 12,” D.K. Aggarwal, Chairman and Managing Director of SMC Investments and Advisors, told IANS.

“Besides, global macro-economic data, developments in the Budget session of Parliament, trends in global markets, investment by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) and domestic institutional investors (DIIs) will continue to dictate the trend on the bourses next week,” he said.

During March 5-9, figures from the National Securities Depository (NSDL) revealed that FPIs invested in equities worth Rs 1,384.36 crore, or $212.98 million.

Provisional figures from the stock exchanges showed that foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold-off scrips worth Rs 280.74 crore, while DIIs purchased scrips worth Rs 131.07 crore during last week.

On technical levels, if the NSE Nifty50 trades and closes above the 10,288-level in the upcoming week, then it is likely to test 10,375 to 10,463-10,565 levels, as per Arpit Jain, Assistant Vice President at Arihant Capital Markets.

“However, if the Nifty trades and closes below 10,165 level, then it can test 10,077 to 9,990-9,888 levels,” Jain told IANS.

“Broadly, the weekly trend is down, hence at higher levels, we are likely to witness selling pressure,” he added.

Last week, the Indian equity markets were engulfed by bears as global trade war fears following US President Donald Trump’s proposal to impose tariff on import of metals, along with the turmoil in the domestic banking sector, continued to erode the risk-taking appetite of investors.

On a weekly basis, the barometer 30-scrip Sensitive Index (Sensex) of the BSE shed 739.8 points or 2.17 per cent to close at 33,307.14 points.

The wider Nifty50 of the National Stock Exchange (NSE) closed trade at 10,226.85 points — down 231.5 points or 2.21 per cent from its previous week’s close.

“With global uncertainty over the US trade war and its reaction, all eyes are also on the proposed meeting of North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un and President Trump in the coming months,” Dhruv Desai, Director and Chief Operating Officer of Tradebulls, told IANS.

According to Vinod Nair, Head Of Research at Geojit Financial Services, absence of major triggers to maintain the upward trend is keeping investors on the sidelines.

“Though the long-term outlook for the domestic economy continues to be strong, issues like global trade headwinds, NPA (non-performing assets) issues and US Federal Reserve’s rate-hike trajectory are adding volatility to the market,” said Nair.

“Market participants are cautiously awaiting the CPI and IIP data next week. Inflation is expected to come down to 4.74 per cent in February which will ease bond yield in the near term. IIP is expected to show some moderation,” he added.

(Porisma P. Gogoi can be contacted at [email protected] )

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Market Review: Higher industrial output, Kim-Trump meet lift equity indices

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Sensex Nifty Equity

Mumbai, June 16: Healthy industrial production data and an encouraging geo-political scenario aided the key Indian equity indices to rise for the fourth consecutive week.

The gains in the week ended Friday, however, were limited by a number of global factors including the interest rate hike in the US, and US President Donald Trump’s approval to tariffs on $50 billion of Chinese exports.

Additionally, domestic factors such as a rise in retail and wholesale inflation also arrested the gains.

Index-wise, the barometer 30-scrip Sensitive Index (Sensex) of the BSE rose by 178.47 points or 0.50 per cent to close at 35,622.14 points on a weekly basis.

The wider Nifty50 of the NSE closed the week’s trade at 10,817.70 points — up 50.05 points or 0.46 per cent — from its previous close.

According to analysts, market breadth was positive in only two of the five trading sessions.

“Markets ended the week with modest gains after a sharp bounce back from the lows of 10,755 points (Nifty50),” said Deepak Jasani, Head of Retail Research at HDFC Securities.

Hem Securities’ Director Prateek Jain said: “Last week indices extended their winning streak to the fourth consecutive week. The upswing was seen despite retail inflation rising to 4.9 per cent for the month of May compared to the previous month.”

According to Rahul Sharma, Senior Research Analyst at Equity99, “It was an eventful week on the global front too, with US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un signing a joint agreement for the denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula.”

“Further, the Fed (US Federal Reserve) has again done what it was expected to do as it raised benchmark interest rates hinting at a little more aggression in tightening monetary policy this year,” Sharma said.

“Another event, which kept investors sentiments on the toe was reports that President Donald Trump’s administration has cleared tariffs on tens of billions of dollars’ worth of Chinese goods”

On the currency front, the rupee closed at 68.02 against the US dollar depreciating by 51 paise from its previous week’s close of 67.51 per greenback.

In terms of investments, provisional figures from the stock exchanges showed that foreign institutional investors sold scrip worth Rs 5,294 crore, while the domestic institutional investors purchased stocks worth Rs 4,014.25 crore during the week.

Figures from the National Securities Depository (NSDL) revealed that foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) divested equities worth Rs 3,071.85 crore, or $455.4 million, in the week ended on June 15.

Sectorally, the top gainers were the pharma, IT, energy and PSU bank indices and the top losers were metal, infrastructure and realty indices, Jasani told IANS.

The top weekly Sensex gainers were Dr Reddy’s Lab (up 13.97 per cent at Rs 2,351.10); Sun Pharma (up 8.11 per cent at Rs 571.05); Tata Consultancy Services (up 5.33 per cent at Rs 1,841.45); IndusInd Bank (up 4.01 per cent at Rs 1,965.85); and Reliance Industries (up 3.10 per cent at Rs 1,013.85 per share).

The major losers were Tata Steel (down 5.60 per cent at Rs 565.95); ONGC (down 4.64 per cent at Rs 165.45); Coal India (down 3.74 per cent at Rs 279.05); NTPC (down 3.40 per cent at Rs 156.05); and Tata Motors (DVR) (down 3.30 per cent at Rs 180.05 per share).

IANS

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Despite overflowing godowns, Modi Govt allows pulses import

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Pulse price rise

New Delhi, June 16: Despite overflowing godowns, the central government has allotted quotas for import of pulses and is enforcing an additional import agreement with Mozambique.

The development comes at a time when domestic stocks are at their peak, domestic production is expected to be high and prices are reducing.

According to the Hindu report, Farmers and millers are unhappy with the situation, but the government says it is balancing the needs of Indian consumers and commitments to foreign trade partners on the one hand and the interests of Indian peasants on the other.

On the related note, the Directorate-General of Foreign Trade (DGFT) held a meeting on Monday, during which the final allocations of import quotas — totalling two lakh tonnes of tur or arhar dal, and 1.5 lakh tonnes each of moong and urad — were made.

Those amounts show a quantitative restriction that was imposed on pulses imports in August last year in response to a glut in domestic supply and decreasing prices, which continues this year.

“The government has stock, traders have stock, millers have stock, and farmers have stock, so there is a surplus. We don’t understand why the government is insisting on import…we may be able to meet only 40-50% of our quotas”. A senior official at the DGFT insisted that according to the terms of the allocation, import quotas must be met by August end.

As a good monsoon forecast is expected, the Agriculture Commissioner predicts domestic pulses production of 24 million tonnes in 2018-19.

However, earlier in May,  the DGFT issued a notice exempting pulses imports from Mozambique from the restrictions.

WeForNews

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Maharashtra: Collector orders closure of 7 govt accounts in SBI

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SBI

Mumbai, June 16: In an unprecedented move, Yavatmal district collector ordered the closure of seven government accounts in the State bank of India (SBI) due to failure in achieving targets of disbursal of crop loans to farmers in the district.

According to the Times of India report, Collector Rajesh Deshmukh issued orders to this effect on Thursday.

Yavatmal made the headlines of being the epicenter of farmer suicides in Maharashtra. Between January 1 and April 30, 68 farmers reportedly claimed their lives.

Deshmukh told TOI, that he undertook the action as the bank had failed to achieve the target of releasing loans to farmers.

“I had no option but to close the state government’s accounts with SBI. I had a long meeting with high-ranking SBI officials on June 2 and 3. However, when there was no progress I made clear it to the SBI administration that the government’s accounts would be closed,’’ he said.

SBI was anticipated to release Rs 571 crore crop loans and the maximum disbursement was to be done before the commencement of sowing season.

“I was told that against the target of Rs 571 crore, SBI had disbursed only Rs 51 crore. We were expecting that SBI, through its 45 branches in the district, would disburse at least 50% of the loan amount. Under such circumstances, we will not be able to tackle the agrarian crisis owing to non-cooperation,” the collector stated.

As per Deshmukh, the response of the district central cooperative bank and other nationalised banks was much better.

So far, the district central cooperative bank has disbursed 42% of the target amount, Union Bank of India and Central Bank of India released 28% and 20%.

The collector informed that “For Yavatmal district, we have set a target of Rs 2,078 crore”.

Citing the loan amnesty scheme, the collector said Rs 1200 crore loans of 2.8 lakh farmers had been waived.

WeForNews 

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