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‘Economic disruption to deter RBI from quantifying FY21 growth forecast’

The RBI’s MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) is expected to release its resolution on the monetary policy after their meet on September 29 to October 1, 2020.

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Reserve Bank of India RBI

New Delhi, Sep 27 : The dynamic economic upheaval unleashed by Covid-19 pandemic might hinder the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) from giving a pin-pointed growth as well as inflation forecast in the upcoming monetary policy report, experts opined.

The existing legislations mandate the RBI to come out with a growth and inflation forecast twice in an interval of six-months in the monetary policy report.

Expectedly, the report is slated to be issued with the upcoming policy review on October 1. The report was last issued in February.

“Given the continuing uncertainty on the economic revival, it is difficult to say whether RBI will come out with clear forecasts on the GDP print for FY21,” said Suman Chowdhury Chief Analytical Officer at Acuite Ratings and Research.

“It has, however already highlighted the risks of a material contraction in economic output in the previous MPC report. As regards inflation, it is likely to reiterate its expectation of a moderation in the CPI inflation over the next few months due to lesser supply constraints, higher crop output in kharif season and also the favourable base effect kicking in.”

According to Brickwork Ratings said: “With uncertainty regarding the pandemic looming large, the RBI may not provide a GDP forecast for FY21 in the upcoming MPC meeting. As in the previous statements, the RBI may continue to talk about economic contraction without quantifying the magnitude.”

“Given the continued surge in Covid-19 cases in the country’s major hubs, which is hindering the recovery process, we expect the Q2FY21 GDP to shrink by 13.5 per cent.”

In April, the RBI’s Monetary Policy Report said that the global economy may slump into recession in 2020.

The report noted that the the coronavirus pandemic, lockdown and the expected contraction in global output will weigh heavily on the growth outlook. The actual outturn would depend upon the speed with which the outbreak is contained and economic activity returns to normalcy, said the Monetary Policy Report for April 2020.

As per the report, due to the highly fluid circumstances in which incoming data produce shifts in the outlook for growth on a daily basis, forecasts for real GDP growth in India are not provided in the Monetary Policy Report, awaiting a clear fix on the intensity, spread and duration of Covid-19.

It is widely expected that persistently high inflation fanned in part due to supply side disruptions along with seasonal factors will deter the Reserve Bank to administer a dose of lending rate cut during the upcoming monetary policy review.

Notably, the expected move will come at a time when industrial output is at historic low due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

The RBI’s MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) is expected to release its resolution on the monetary policy after their meet on September 29 to October 1, 2020.

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“How To Destroy An Economy”: Rahul Gandhi’s Latest Swipe At Government

Kaushik Basu, who served as Chief Economic Adviser to the Finance Ministry, tweeted a warning to the centre: “Don’t be in data denial… take corrective action…”

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Rahul Gandhi Farmers

New Delhi: Congress MP Rahul Gandhi this afternoon cited figures collated by renowned economist Kaushik Basu – which project India’s GDP as contracting the most among a selection of 11 Asian nations, including China – to take yet another swipe at the government.

“How to completely destroy an economy and infect the maximum number of people really quickly,” Mr Gandhi tweeted, with a data table showing projected GDP growth (for 2020) for 11 Asian countries and the number of coronavirus-related deaths (per million) for each.

India, with a projected GDP contraction of 10.3 per cent (according to a IMF report released ealier last week) and 83 Covid-related deaths per million, is at the bottom of a list that includes China, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Nepal and Sri Lanka.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF), in a report released last Tuesday, said it expected India’s economy to shrink by 10.3 per cent – a huge downward revision from its June prediction for a government under pressure over its handling of the pandemic and the economic fallout.

Kaushik Basu, who served as Chief Economic Adviser to the Finance Ministry, tweeted another warning today: “Don’t be in data denial. Mistakes happen-admit & take corrective action…”

In August the government said India’s GDP had contracted by 23.9 per cent – much worse than expected – in April-June, as the pandemic brought key industries to a halt and left millions jobless.

Mr Gandhi tore into that revelation, accusing the government of ignoring repeated warnings from experts on the extent to which the coronavirus pandemic had affected the economy

The government has since claimed a recovery of sorts – on both fronts.

Earlier this month the Finance Ministry said “demand resurgence is palpable in many sectors” and yesterday a government-appointed committee said the country had crossed the coronavirus peak.

One of the points claimed by the committee was that the early lockdown, which triggered the economic problems – had significantly helped reduce the number of deaths due to the virus.

Meanwhile, apart from highlighting a potentially difficult 2020 for India’s GDP (something several economists and reports have already flagged), the IMF report triggered another row when it suggested that India’s per capita GDP is set to drop below that of Bangladesh.

Rahul Gandhi pounced on that as well, tweeting: “Solid achievement of 6 years of BJP’s hate-filled cultural nationalism. Bangladesh set to overtake India”.

Shortly after that government sources issued a clarification, claiming that in terms of purchasing power parity – a measure of GDP that accounts for relative differences between countries – India’s per capita GDP in 2019 was actually 11 times higher than that of Bangladesh.

China, which according to the data sheet shared first by Mr Basu and then Mr Gandhi, is projected to record positive GDP growth – 1.9 per cent – this year.

Bangladesh, meanwhile, is to record an impressive 3.8 per cent GDP growth for 2020.

This afternoon China released its July-September GDP figures and said its economy had grown by 4.9 per cent – the same as last year and only marginally below the expected 5.2 per cent.

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Adani, Piramal among bidders for bankrupt DHFL

In November last year, the Reserve Bank of India referred DHFL for bankruptcy under the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code at the National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT).

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Mumbai, Oct 18 : Adani Group, Piramal Enterprises, US-based Oaktree and Hong Kong-headquartered SC Lowy have submitted their bids for the insolvent Dewan Housing Finance Corporation Ltd (DHFL), sources said.

The deadline to submit bids for DHFL ended on Saturday.

According to sources, Adani Group has bid for the wholesale and slum rehabilitation authority portfolio. Piramal Enterprises, on the other hand, has bid for its retail business.

Further, Oaktree has submitted a resolution proposal for the entire company with a bid value of Rs 20,000 crore.

The admitted debt of the insolvent NBFC is over Rs 90,000 crore.

In November last year, the Reserve Bank of India referred DHFL for bankruptcy under the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code at the National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT). Its resolution is now underway at the Mumbai bench of NCLT.

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Weak institutional participation leading to consolidation of equity markets

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Mumbai, Oct 18 : Weak institutional investment from domestic institutional investors (DII) and foreign portfolio investors (FPI) since September have led the Indian equity markets into a consolidation phase, according to a report by ICICI Securities.

The report noted that the sharp bounce back by the market after the lows in March was in anticipation of normalising economic activity, which has shown up in terms of high frequency data in September including PMI, GST collection, electricity demand, improving exports, wholesale auto sales.

“Institutional flows both from DIIs and FPI’s have turned weak since Sep as sharp upside in stocks since March lows turns equity valuations expensive. Weak institutional participation is resulting in a consolidation phase for equity markets currently,” it said.

It noted that current market behaviour of muted flows by institutional investors and the resultant consolidation in stock prices imply economic activity may plateau going forward after normalising to pre-Covid levels.

Expecting economic activity to rise beyond pre-Covid level without large fiscal and monetary stimulus would be erroneous as aggregate demand in the economy was already weak before the impact of the pandemic, it said.

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