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Demonitisation to pinch real estate sector

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New Delhi, November 9: A stark move to spearhead black money by PM Narendra Modi is going to be a watershed moment in Indian economic history, though the adverse effect on industries cannot be ruled out.

The opposition parties have sharply criticised the move to ban Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes as a “chaotic” and unrealistic exercise to beat the black money.

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Opposition parties slam govt move to scrap large currency notes

Chidambaram says 2000 rupee note will increase corruption

India’s black economy is over Rs 30 lakh crore or about 20 per cent of total GDP reported a research by Ambit Capital. Wherein, real estate accounts for 11 percent of GDP. So majorly the impact of the current demonetisation of Rs 500 and Rs 1000 currency notes would be clearly on the real estate sector.

In India, realty business particularly operates as primary and secondary markets. The primary markets would not be affected much. Not in the short term at least. However, the secondary market, that accounts to be 40 % of the sector would be affected worse.

As per whitepaper on black money released by the Ministry of Finance in 2012, the real estate sector contributes to almost 11 per cent of the GDP.

According to Deepak Parekh, chairman HDFC Ltd: I expect price of real estate to come down. One expects the price of real estate should come down in medium term.

Investment in property is a common means of parking unaccounted money. There is a great number of transactions in real estate that are not reported or are under-reported. The white paper reported that it is mainly done to do away with the high levels of property transaction taxes.

So, with the Modi government’s sudden wrath over the un-organised realtors may cause fall in prices of Housing, which may revive demand in the sluggish housing segment after some time.

DLF CEO Rajeev Talwar said, “We are moving toward the cashless economy which is a sign of maturing economy. It’s a step in the right direction.”

JLL India Country Head and Chairman Anuj Puri said: “It will not have any impact on the primary residential segment as the buyer in this sector are driven by mortgage. The impact will be felt in the secondary market and the unorganised developers community where there were still cash dealing.”

CREDAI President Gitambar Anand however pointed out that resale market will feel the pinch, while the primary market may not get hurt as such.

Wefornews Bureau

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“How To Destroy An Economy”: Rahul Gandhi’s Latest Swipe At Government

Kaushik Basu, who served as Chief Economic Adviser to the Finance Ministry, tweeted a warning to the centre: “Don’t be in data denial… take corrective action…”

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New Delhi: Congress MP Rahul Gandhi this afternoon cited figures collated by renowned economist Kaushik Basu – which project India’s GDP as contracting the most among a selection of 11 Asian nations, including China – to take yet another swipe at the government.

“How to completely destroy an economy and infect the maximum number of people really quickly,” Mr Gandhi tweeted, with a data table showing projected GDP growth (for 2020) for 11 Asian countries and the number of coronavirus-related deaths (per million) for each.

India, with a projected GDP contraction of 10.3 per cent (according to a IMF report released ealier last week) and 83 Covid-related deaths per million, is at the bottom of a list that includes China, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Nepal and Sri Lanka.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF), in a report released last Tuesday, said it expected India’s economy to shrink by 10.3 per cent – a huge downward revision from its June prediction for a government under pressure over its handling of the pandemic and the economic fallout.

Kaushik Basu, who served as Chief Economic Adviser to the Finance Ministry, tweeted another warning today: “Don’t be in data denial. Mistakes happen-admit & take corrective action…”

In August the government said India’s GDP had contracted by 23.9 per cent – much worse than expected – in April-June, as the pandemic brought key industries to a halt and left millions jobless.

Mr Gandhi tore into that revelation, accusing the government of ignoring repeated warnings from experts on the extent to which the coronavirus pandemic had affected the economy

The government has since claimed a recovery of sorts – on both fronts.

Earlier this month the Finance Ministry said “demand resurgence is palpable in many sectors” and yesterday a government-appointed committee said the country had crossed the coronavirus peak.

One of the points claimed by the committee was that the early lockdown, which triggered the economic problems – had significantly helped reduce the number of deaths due to the virus.

Meanwhile, apart from highlighting a potentially difficult 2020 for India’s GDP (something several economists and reports have already flagged), the IMF report triggered another row when it suggested that India’s per capita GDP is set to drop below that of Bangladesh.

Rahul Gandhi pounced on that as well, tweeting: “Solid achievement of 6 years of BJP’s hate-filled cultural nationalism. Bangladesh set to overtake India”.

Shortly after that government sources issued a clarification, claiming that in terms of purchasing power parity – a measure of GDP that accounts for relative differences between countries – India’s per capita GDP in 2019 was actually 11 times higher than that of Bangladesh.

China, which according to the data sheet shared first by Mr Basu and then Mr Gandhi, is projected to record positive GDP growth – 1.9 per cent – this year.

Bangladesh, meanwhile, is to record an impressive 3.8 per cent GDP growth for 2020.

This afternoon China released its July-September GDP figures and said its economy had grown by 4.9 per cent – the same as last year and only marginally below the expected 5.2 per cent.

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Adani, Piramal among bidders for bankrupt DHFL

In November last year, the Reserve Bank of India referred DHFL for bankruptcy under the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code at the National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT).

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Mumbai, Oct 18 : Adani Group, Piramal Enterprises, US-based Oaktree and Hong Kong-headquartered SC Lowy have submitted their bids for the insolvent Dewan Housing Finance Corporation Ltd (DHFL), sources said.

The deadline to submit bids for DHFL ended on Saturday.

According to sources, Adani Group has bid for the wholesale and slum rehabilitation authority portfolio. Piramal Enterprises, on the other hand, has bid for its retail business.

Further, Oaktree has submitted a resolution proposal for the entire company with a bid value of Rs 20,000 crore.

The admitted debt of the insolvent NBFC is over Rs 90,000 crore.

In November last year, the Reserve Bank of India referred DHFL for bankruptcy under the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code at the National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT). Its resolution is now underway at the Mumbai bench of NCLT.

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Weak institutional participation leading to consolidation of equity markets

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Mumbai, Oct 18 : Weak institutional investment from domestic institutional investors (DII) and foreign portfolio investors (FPI) since September have led the Indian equity markets into a consolidation phase, according to a report by ICICI Securities.

The report noted that the sharp bounce back by the market after the lows in March was in anticipation of normalising economic activity, which has shown up in terms of high frequency data in September including PMI, GST collection, electricity demand, improving exports, wholesale auto sales.

“Institutional flows both from DIIs and FPI’s have turned weak since Sep as sharp upside in stocks since March lows turns equity valuations expensive. Weak institutional participation is resulting in a consolidation phase for equity markets currently,” it said.

It noted that current market behaviour of muted flows by institutional investors and the resultant consolidation in stock prices imply economic activity may plateau going forward after normalising to pre-Covid levels.

Expecting economic activity to rise beyond pre-Covid level without large fiscal and monetary stimulus would be erroneous as aggregate demand in the economy was already weak before the impact of the pandemic, it said.

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