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Covid-19 will end in mid-Sept in India, say Health Min officials

According to Dr Anil Kumar, Deputy Director General (Public Health), Directorate General of Health Services of the Ministry of Health and Family welfare, the pandemic in India will be over in mid-September.

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New Delhi: When will the coronavirus pandemic end in India? There is no definite answer yet, but senior officials of the Health Ministry predict that the pandemic in India may go in mid-September this year.

According to Dr Anil Kumar, Deputy Director General (Public Health), Directorate General of Health Services of the Ministry of Health and Family welfare, the pandemic in India will be over in mid-September.

In his article published in Epidemiology International Journal, Kumar, along with co-author and Deputy Assistant Director General (Leprosy) of Directorate General of Health Services, Health Ministry, Rupali Roy, have predicted that the pandemic would extinguish in India in mid-September.

Their prediction is based on Bailey’s model where Relative Removal Rate (BMRRR) is considered for reaching a conclusion.

Speaking to IANS, Dr Kumar said, “There is a well-known model called Bailey’s Model. It is based on Relative Removal Rate which means how many cases are entering the pool and how many are going out of the pool. When the number of infected is equal to the number of removed patients, the coefficient will reach the 100% threshold, then this pandemic will be over.”

In this model, the removal rate is calculated which is the percentage of removed persons in the infected population. Further, a regression analysis has been done to show the linear relationship between the total infection rate and the total recovery rate.

“This model is applicable on any infectious disease. Whatever you do, you will be reaching 100 per cent one day. The relative removal rate means all those who have got infection will be either cured or dead. when we did the study on May 19, it was 42% but now it is around 50 per cent and in the middle of September, it will be 100 per cent,” said Kumar.

According to this mathematical calculation, taking the rate to a higher and higher level is a reflection of moving forward in the right direction and success of control measures being taken. The linear regression analysis has been used in this study and it is showing that the linear line is reaching 100 in the middle of September 2020.

“So it may be interpreted that at that point of time, the number of the infected will be equal to the number of removed patients, and that’s why the coefficient will reach 100% threshold,” said the study.

“This is a very good model to support analysis and interpretation of State and District data (whenever the number of cases is high) and it will also help in relevant decision-making in control activities of COVID 19 pandemic,” said the study.

“This will further help the government to take long-term disease prevention and intervention programs,” it said.

However, Kumar said all the mathematical models are not absolute and it depends upon the quality of data available.

“All states have different policies in reporting the number of cases. Some are reporting only severe cases, while some are reporting both severe and mild cases. A few states conduct fewer tests, thus report fewer cases. Therefore it is very important to report correct data for more accurate results,” said Kumar.

Talking about the implementation of lockdown in the country, Kumar said the lockdown could have yielded even better results.

“We could not achieve what we could have. However the idea of lockdown was very good, but due to various reasons, it was not so effective. Lockdown is more of an administrative decision, but the real measure needs to be taken at a community level,” Kumar told IANS. “Otherwise, we can not get the benefit of it, he added.

“If you allow the transmission to occur and no measures are taken at a community level, then it will be very difficult to control the outbreak,” Kumar said.

When asked what percentage of the population will get the infection in India, Kumar said the study does not predict the number of cases in the country. “No one can predict how much the population will get affected — it depends upon so many things such as, from now on, how people are going to maintain distancing and how public health measures will be taken in future.

“It also depends upon how different governments are going to act,” Kumar said, adding it is very much possible to prevent so many corona cases from occurring in the country.

“There should be uniformity in applying public health measures at the community level throughout the country. My model does not suggest a number of cases. I have only predicted when this will be over. The prediction depends upon the surveillance system and quality of data.”

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Male sex hormones may help treat breast cancer: Study

While endocrine therapy is standard-of-care for estrogen receptor positive breast cancer, resistance to these drugs is the major cause of breast cancer mortality.

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Sydney : Researchers have found new evidence about the positive role of androgens, commonly thought of as male sex hormones but also found at lower levels in women, in breast cancer treatment.

In normal breast development, estrogen stimulates and androgen inhibits growth at puberty and throughout adult life.

Abnormal estrogen activity is responsible for the majority of breast cancers, but the role of androgen activity in this disease has been controversial.

The new research published in the journal Nature Medicine showed that androgens have potential for treatment of estrogen receptor positive breast cancer.

A cancer is called estrogen receptor positive if it has receptors for estrogen, according to Breastcancer.org.

Using cell-line and patient-derived models, the global team, including researchers at the University of Adelaide and the Garvan Institute of Medical Research in Australia, demonstrated that androgen receptor activation by natural androgen or a new androgenic drug had potent anti-tumour activity in all estrogen receptor positive breast cancers, even those resistant to current standard-of-care treatments.

In contrast, androgen receptor inhibitors had no effect.

“This work has immediate implications for women with metastatic estrogen receptor positive breast cancer, including those resistant to current forms of endocrine therapy,” said lead researcher Theresa Hickey, Associate Professor at the University of Adelaide.

“We provide compelling new experimental evidence that androgen receptor stimulating drugs can be more effective than existing (e.g. Tamoxifen) or new (e.g. Palbociclib) standard-of-care treatments and, in the case of the latter, can be combined to enhance growth inhibition,” said Wayne Tilley, Director of the Dame Roma Mitchell Cancer Research Laboratories, Adelaide Medical School, University of Adelaide.

Androgens were historically used to treat breast cancer, but knowledge of hormone receptors in breast tissue was rudimentary at the time and the treatment’s efficacy misunderstood.

Androgen therapy was discontinued due to virilising side effects and the advent of anti-estrogenic endocrine therapies.

While endocrine therapy is standard-of-care for estrogen receptor positive breast cancer, resistance to these drugs is the major cause of breast cancer mortality.

“The new insights from this study should clarify the widespread confusion over the role of the androgen receptor in estrogen receptor driven breast cancer,” said Elgene Lim, a breast oncologist and Head of the Connie Johnson Breast Cancer Research Lab at the Garvan Institute.

“Given the efficacy of this treatment strategy at multiple stages of disease in our study, we hope to translate these findings into clinical trials as a new class of endocrine therapy for breast cancer.”

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Azim Premji and Dr Devi Shetty chosen for PCB awards

Besides them 25 senior journalists have been selected for the ‘Press Club Annual Awards’, a release said.

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Bengaluru, Jan 19: The chairman of Wipro Limited Azim Premji and the founder chairman of Narayana Health Dr Devi Prasad Shetty are among those who have been selected for the annual awards given by the Press Club of Bangalore.

Premji has been chosen for ‘Press Club Person of the Year’, while Dr Shetty and actor-Director Sudeep Sanjeev have been selected for the ‘Press Club Special Award.’

Besides them 25 senior journalists have been selected for the ‘Press Club Annual Awards’, a release said.

Chief Minister B S Yediyurappa will facilitate the awardees at a function scheduled for the third week of February, it said.

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Elizabeth Olsen: Nepotism creates fear that you don’t deserve the work you get

The actress added that she “always had this need to prove myself to everyone around me that I work really hard”, adding: “I couldn’t walk in a room without everyone already having an opinion.”

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Elizabeth Olsen

Los Angeles, Jan 19 : Hollywood star Elizabeth Olsen says she once thought of changing her surname and distance herself from the success of her family because it was insanity growing up in the spotlight.

“It was insanity. There were times when my sisters would always be spotted and I would be in the car with them and it would really freak me out. It has helped me navigate how I want to approach my career,” said the actress, whose older sisters are Mary-Kate Olsen and Ashley Olsen.

The actress added that she “always had this need to prove myself to everyone around me that I work really hard”, adding: “I couldn’t walk in a room without everyone already having an opinion.”

Elizabeth opened up om the fears of nepotism.

“The thing about nepotism is the fear that you don’t earn or deserve the work. There was even a part of me when I was a little girl that thought if I’m gonna be an actress I’m going to go by Elizabeth Chase, which is my middle name. And then, once I started working, I was like, ‘I love my family, I like my name, I love my sisters. Why would I be so ashamed of that?’ It’s fine now,” she said.

The actress said fame has made her more of a homebody.

“Fame has also made me someone who is more of a homebody than maybe I would like to be but I know where not to go. If I could do whatever I wanted for the day, I’d start with the gym, then I’d go to the grocery store, because it’s my favourite thing,” Elizabeth told The Sun.

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