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One Belt One Road :China to emerge as global economic power

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China’s consistent efforts of aggressively pursuing diplomacy from 2002 and then transforming the same to economic and investment ties from 2013 has resulted in ushering in China as a new global economic power. It has thus re-invented centuries old Silk Road and Routes on land as well as through sea.

As Chinese President Xi Jinping unveils the final outcome of Chinese diplomacy  and connectivity that it has already established itself as a global power with 29 heads of state  and top officials from more than 60 countries, including one of India’s strategic partners Russian president Vladimir Putin and high level delegations from Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Nepal and Myanmar and major powers France, Germany, U.K. and U.S. participating in the international event of One Belt One Road in May 14 -15 summit.

China which has already attained greater connectivity, military might through one party rule of the Communist Party of China  and having bilateral relations with maximum number of countries through soft diplomacy. In fact the grand economic plan presents China as an emerging economic superpower.

Chinese President Xi Jinping is credited with initiating a New Silk Road from China to Europe dubbed as One Belt, One Road  is actually the combination of various routes that facilitated the export of Silk and other commodities from China to Asia. In practice, OBOR is a collection of  land  based Silk Road economic belt and Maritime Silk Road with primary points in Urumqi, Dostyk, Astana, Gomel, Brest and the Polish cities of Malaszewicze and Lodz which would be hubs of logistics and transshipment to other countries of Europe.

China’s long-term goals, ambitions and initiatives have been shaped by One Belt One Road  initiative  that aims to increase connectivity between the Asian, European and African continents.

Time-line of starting of OBOR

  • On September 7,2013 President Xi raised the One Belt One Road at Kazakhstan’s Nazarbayev.
  • August 22,2014- President Xi welcomed neighbouring countries to join the One Belt One road initiative in his visit in Mongolia
  • October 24, 2014 -The establishment of AIIB: Twenty one countries ,including China  and Singapore signed the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) regarding the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) in Beijing .
  • December 29,2014 – the Chinese government pledged US$40 billion for the creation of the Silk Road Fund,which is a state owned investment fund of the Chinese government
  • Feb1,2015 -Advance One belt one road construction Conference was held in Beijing.
  • March 26,2015 -President Xi delivered a speech Boao Forum for Asia, stated that OBOR is to promote mutual economic strategy  along countries achieve docking.
  • March 28, 2015 Ministry of Foreign Affairs  and the Ministry of commerce issued the vision  and  actions on jointly building Silk Road Economic Belt  and 21st century Maritime Silk Road.
  • May 7,2015-President Xi visited Kazakhstan, Belarus and Russia  for the implementation of OBOR.

Specifically India which has skipped the summit due to its sovereignty issues  as China’s OBOR grand plan is under the framework of the China-Pakistan-Economic-Corridor, a series of projects that stands to connect the Asian giant to Central Asia  and Europe .CPEC which connects China’s largest province,Xinjiang,with Pakistan’s Gwadar port in Balochistan, the largest and most impoverished province of Pakistan  bordering Iran’s Sistan and Baluchestan province.

India  has opposed the CPEC route  and development at Gwadar port because of several reasons as

  1. The  route passes through the controversial territories of Gilgit-Baltistan and Pakistan occupied Kashmir .
  2. On the pretext of connectivity and economic development China violates sovereignty and territorial integrity of many countries including India.
  3. Gwadar will act as  a Chinese naval base in the Arabian Sea with access to Mid-East and Mediterranean Sea in Europe.
  4. In addition,Chinese navy plans to have access to Indian Ocean  at various places including Sri Lanka.

China’s hegemony and neo-imperialistic designs

China has been working on the old tradition of foreign relations as the basis for Imperial China  during the times of Qin dynasty  and consider all other powers as subservient and tributaries to suzerain rule of China.

Under this approach China has roped in 65 countries  somewhat connected and covering more than half of the world’s population.

That includes:

  1. Planned projects  to focus on the development of numerous assets ,including ports,roads,railways,airports,power plants, oil and gas pipelines , refineries  and Free Trade Zones.
  2. The OBOR also includes China -Pakistan -Economic -Corridor  and Chinese heavy investment in Myanmar  including Bangaldesh-China-India-Myanmar Corridor

China’s approach begins with soft diplomacy stating that it will not charge hefty amounts for the investments they have already done stressing on the inclusiveness of the other countries in this connectivity corridor.But in the long run Beijing plans to charge them heavily.

China insists that the objective of OBOR is to facilitate  smoother trade flow  within the connected regions and an improved linkage via railways and maritime connectivity  will reduce  the transit time between Europe and China.The land route will also emerge as an option for the movement of goods.

Challenges to China’s OBOR

But China’s flagship project  faces many challenges in the form of terrorism that currently plagues various areas  of the world. CPEC that connect China’s Xinjiang is a conflict zone where Uyghur separatists claim that the region is not a part of China but was part of East Turkestan Republic that was illegally incorporated into the People’s Republic of China in 1949.

Now, the second point of concern is Balochistan has been under attack by separatists,insurgents  and Islamic State-Khorasan jihadists for over a decade.

Apart from the terrorism angle, regional conflicts can also hinder the initiative and there exists scepticism  about Chinese hegemony by various countries.

Moreover,the OBOR has had long-term geo-political and strategic implications for Europe, creating political and economic dependencies, accompanied by the real threat of poorer EU states succumbing to the political leverage exercised by China, through massive infrastructure investments.

arti bali

By : Arti Bali

Senior Journalist

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100 days and running: Coronavirus has only got deadlier

The deadly respiratory disease came to light in early January and on Thursday, it had infected over 1.3 million people worldwide, with the US on the top.

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New Delhi, April 10 : April 9 marked the 100th day of the first cases of new coronavirus being reported, which began its deadly journey from a seafood market in Wuhan in China and brought the entire world to its knees.

In a tweet on Thursday, WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said: “Today marks 100 days since @WHO was notified of the first cases of what we now call #COVID19. Over 1.3M people have been infected & almost 80K have lost their lives. This pandemic is much more than a health crisis. It requires a whole-of government & society response.”

The deadly respiratory disease came to light in early January and on Thursday, it had infected over 1.3 million people worldwide, with the US on the top.

The Director-General said that the WHO has been working day and night to fight COVID-19 in five key areas. Supporting countries to prepare & respond, providing accurate information & fighting the infodemic, ensuring supply of medical equipment for #healthworkers, training & mobilizing health workers and accelerating R&D.

“Our focus has been on working with countries & partners to bring the world together to confront this common threat together. We’ve been especially concerned with protecting the world’s poorest & most vulnerable, not just in the poorest countries, but in all countries,” he emphasised.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has urged support for the WHO after US President Donald Trump threatened to freeze American funding.

“It is my belief that the World Health Organization must be supported, as it is absolutely critical to the world’s efforts to win the war against COVID-19,” Xinhua news agency quoted Guterres as saying in a statement.

Trump on Tuesday criticized the WHO’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic and threatened to freeze US funding for it.

Again on Wednesday, Trump while addressing the White House daily briefing claimed that the WHO has gotten the pandemic “wrong”

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No community transmission in India yet: WHO Regional Head

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New Delhi, April 8 : Given that many parts of India are witnessing large number of cases of Covid-19, experts have expressed their views on community transmission, but speaking exclusively to IANS, Poonam Khetrapal Singh, Regional Director of the World Health Organization’s South-East Asia region, said that currently cases in India have been traceable so there is no community transmission.

Dr Khetrapal Singh spoke on variety of topics related to the novel coronavirus, India’s response of containing the disease, testing strategy and lockdown. Here are the excerpts of her interview with IANS:

Question 1: What has WHO discovered about this new virus behaviour and character? What kind of trends or data are coming about this novel virus? Any findings or conclusion about its aetiology so far?

Answer: Based on currently available data, the main driver of COVID-19 transmission is people who have symptoms. Preliminary data suggests that people may be more contagious around the time of symptom onset as compared to later on in the disease. Detailed exposure histories are being taken to better understand the pre-symptomatic phase of infection and how transmission may have occurred in these few instances. While there are some reports of laboratory-confirmed cases who are truly asymptomatic, to date there has been no documented asymptomatic transmission. This does not exclude the possibility that it may occur. Transmission from an asymptomatic person is very rare with other coronaviruses, such as Middle East Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV). Persons who are symptomatic spread viruses more readily through coughing or exhaling. WHO is regularly monitoring all emerging evidence about this critical topic. About the source, increasing evidence demonstrates the link between the COVID-19 and other similar known coronaviruses circulating in bats, and more specifically those of the Rhinolophus bat sub-species. At this stage, it is not possible to determine precisely how humans in China were initially infected with SARS-CoV-2. The route of transmission to humans at the start of this event remains unclear. The current most likely hypothesis is that an intermediary host animal has played a role in the transmission – this could be a domestic animal, a wild animal, or a domesticated wild animal and, as of yet, has not been identified. WHO continues to collaborate with experts, countries and other partners to identify gaps and research priorities for the control of COVID-19, caused by the SARS-CoV-2, including the identification of the source of SARS-CoV-2. Current information suggests that the virus can cause mild, flu-like symptoms as well as more severe disease. Patients have a range of symptoms: fever (83-98 per cent), cough (68 per cent) and shortness of breath (19-35 per cent). About 40 per cent of cases seem to have mild disease, 40 per cent of cases have moderate disease (defined as radiology-confirmed pneumonia), about 14 per cent appear to progress to severe disease, and some 5 per cent are critical. Risk factors for severe disease are older age and comorbidities. This is a new disease and our understanding is changing rapidly. WHO continues to analyze information on both current and any new cases, as this is critical to enhancing our understanding of severity.

Question 2: A post is doing rounds on social media, defining the time frame of survival of the virus on different kind of surfaces (like aerosols for up to three hours, up to four hours on copper, up to 24 hours on cardboard and up to two to three days on plastic and stainless steel) How true it is?

Answer: The virus that causes COVID-19 is mainly transmitted through droplets generated when an infected person coughs, sneezes, or speaks. These droplets are too heavy to hang in the air. They quickly fall on floors or surfaces. You can be infected by breathing in the virus if you are within 1 meter of a person who has COVID-19, or by touching a contaminated surface and then touching your eyes, nose or mouth before washing your hands. Surfaces can be contaminated with the virus. Studies conducted on SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV indicate that coronaviruses can persist on different surfaces for up to a few days depending on a combination of parameters such as temperature, humidity and light. Thus, frequent hand washing and cleaning of surfaces has been always recommended by WHO.

Question 3: Has WHO done any finding on this SARS-CoV-2 relation, response or reaction with (High and Low) temperature?

Answer: There is no robust evidence yet to such hypotheses. It is important that people practice hand hygiene regularly with soap and water; clean surfaces regularly with disinfectant – for example kitchen benches and work desks; cover their cough and sneeze; take extra precautions to avoid crowded areas if you are over 60, or if you have an underlying condition such as cardiovascular disease, diabetes, chronic respiratory disease, and cancer; if you are sick, stay at home, and eat and sleep separately from your family, use different utensils and cutlery to eat; and if you develop shortness of breath, call your doctor and seek care immediately.

Question 4: How far is the world still from finding therapeutic cure for COVID-19?

Answer: No pharmaceutical products have yet been shown to be safe and effective for the treatment of COVID-19. However, a number of medicines have been suggested as potential investigational therapies, many of which are now being studied in clinical trials, including the Solidarity trial co-sponsored by WHO and participating countries. So far, 74 countries have either joined the Solidarity trial or are in the process of joining and more than 200 patients had been randomly assigned to one of the study arms. Each new patient who joins the trial gets us one step closer to knowing which drugs work. There are multiple randomized clinical trials investigating the safety and efficacy of anti-virals and steroids ongoing worldwide.

Question 5: Although health authorities have not said that it is a ‘community transmission’ stage in India. Do you think the same?

Answer: Community transmission in any country is confirmed when the source of infection is unclear. In other words, when transmission in a given area – is extensive, in multiple locations, without reported travel history to areas reporting community transmission and without epidemiological links to known cases. Currently cases in India have been traceable. However, whatever the stage, the key action points are – engage with people; find, isolate, test and treat and trace every contact; ready your hospitals; and protect and train health workers. That’s the only way to combat COVID19.

Question 6: Do you think India is conducting less tests even as WHO Director General said “testing testing and testing?

Answer: On testing, India’s response has been proportionate to the need and the transmission scenario of COVID-19. The country has, on an ongoing basis, been ramping up its capacities with currently 152 public sector laboratories and 49 accredited private lab chains testing all symptomatic individuals who have undertaken international travel in the last 14 days; all symptomatic contacts of laboratory confirmed cases; all symptomatic health care workers; all hospitalized patients with Severe Acute Respiratory Illness and asymptomatic direct and high-risk contacts of a confirmed case. Besides all influenza like cases in hotspot areas are being tested. India has been calibrating its testing strategy as per the changing situation, taking into account scope, need and capacity.

Question 7: Looking at the number of cases, do you think India is amid an outbreak? Or do see that the disease is still contained very well here? Do you think India has taken the decision of lockdown very late, despite early warning from WHO?

Answer: India has so far managed to keep cases relatively low by rolling out quick and aggressive response. India has an advantage as the country-initiated response early and had an opportunity to learn from other countries that are ahead in terms of cases and applying different strategies in responding to the ongoing pandemic. The most effective way to control an outbreak is to detect disease early, isolate, treat, trace contacts, and promote social distancing measures. A lockdown helps in conducting these well but is not the solution by itself in curbing the epidemic.

Question 8: Is India getting any help in procuring PPE from WHO funds? Or do you think it’s doing very well on its own?

Answer: India’s response is nationally funded. WHO has provided some PPEs and primers and probes from its stockpile, and is also facilitating supplies through the global pandemic supply chain. WHO’s work with the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare and state governments on various preparedness and response measures include strengthening surveillance and contact tracing; laboratory and research protocols; risk communications; hospital preparedness; training on infection prevention and control and cluster containment plan.

Question 9: How do you think India is responding to the evolving situation as compared to other countries in the South Asian region?

Answer: WHO has been recommending all countries to scale up emergency response mechanism to A1) engage with people, 2) Find, isolate, test and treat every case and trace every contact; 3) ready hospitals; and 4) protect and train health workers.India’s response to COVID-19 has been pre-emptive, pro-active and graded with high-level political commitment. India’s efforts, that are led by the highest political leadership, is very much in line with WHO recommended actions such as coordination, planning, and monitoring; community engagement; surveillance, rapid response teams and case investigation, points of entry, national laboratories; infection prevention and control; case management; and operational support and logistics. This needs to continue/be ensured at all levels.

(Sfoorti Mishra can be contacted at [email protected])

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Corona crisis: Mumbai’s congested Dharavi causes big worry

Though Mumbai has so far notched 686 Covid-19 positive cases, only a small number are from Dharavi, both in terms of infectees and deaths.

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Mumbai, April 8 : As the second Covid-19 patient died on Wednesday and a 13th person reported positive in the past five days from Dharavi in central Mumbai on Wednesday, state and civic health authorities were alarmed over the implications in the most congested locality on the planet which is also Asia’s biggest slum.

Despite the ongoing lockdown since March 25, in most parts of Dharavi, its business as usual, prompting Health Minister Rajesh Tope to take note of it and instruct police to “implement lockdown strictly” there.

“In Dharavi, lockdown must be enforced strictly besides ensuring social distancing. The police must take it seriously and take stern measures,” Tope told mediapersons.

However, the minister indicated that it may not be necessary to completely seal Dharavi, though norms would be implemented strongly in view of the coronavirus pandemic.

This afternoon, there were shocking visuals of long queues of people awaiting their turn for collecting meals being distributed by some NGOs, and though most sported masks, there was little evidence of social distancing in the queues.

In the morning and evening, the streets seemed to be full and bustling with most activities in the region, with security personnel seemingly helpless to enforce lockdown norms, and today some cops gave a friendly lecture and sit-ups to a few youths loitering around.

Started as a workers’ settlement 135 years ago on the outskirts of the then Bombay, Dharavi — literally meaning ‘quick sand’ — covers just 2.25 sq. km housing over 200,000 families besides over 20,000 big and small businesses generating revenues of an estimated Rs 7,000 crore.

“The biggest problem here is congestion. Lakhs of people live or work in cramped quarters — 8-10 persons in a 100-sq feet room, with common sanitation (toilet) facilities. How can there be social distancing in such conditions,” wonders a local businessman Salim Shaikh, living in nearby Antop Hill.

Another problem is the dirt, squalor and unhygienic conditions that make it a sitting duck in case of any contagious outbreak or even fires, as the BrihanMumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) has sealed several buildings and taken up regular but thorough sanitization drives in Dharavi, including one today.

Mumbaikar Pradeep Sathyadas, who lives in Mahim, on the fringes of Dharavi, but commutes to work through Dharavi to Masjid Bunder, the current lockdown is “like a blessing”.

“I shudder to imagine what would happen here if the pandemic becomes more serious. “It’s already teeming with people virtually 24×7, how can you control so many, where can you shift these lakhs of humans, even temporarily,” said Sathyadas.

Both Shaikh and Sathyadas say that people from Dharavi move all around Mumbai and could pose a big health risk if the situation goes out of control.

Despite the squalid settings, people of all faiths live and work here harmoniously, eking out a living, some hand-to-mouth, and some literally minting money here while living in posh housing complexes elsewhere in the city.

Though Mumbai has so far notched 686 Covid-19 positive cases, only a small number are from Dharavi, both in terms of infectees and deaths.

Dharavi — the subject of several Indian (‘Dharavi’, 1993 Hindi film, National Award Winner) and international (‘Slumdog Millionaire’, multiple Oscar Award Winner) films and books (Gregory David Roberts’ bestseller ‘Shantaram’, 2003) — sprawls from Mahim on Western Railway to Sion-Matunga on Central Railway and spills over into many adjoining areas.

(Quaid Najmi can be contacted at: [email protected])

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