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China-Pakistan-Saudi Arabia BLOC effect India’s security

To think that China-Pakistan tie up is in India’s disadvantage but it points to a far greater danger to US and Russia when viewed in the context of 4o countries including Saudi Arabia to emerge as the most formidable military and economic bloc in the world.

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China-Pakistan-Economic-Corridor

To think that China-Pakistan tie up is in India’s disadvantage but it points to a far greater danger to US and Russia when viewed in the context of 4o countries including Saudi Arabia to emerge as the most formidable military and economic bloc in the world.

The China-Pakistan relations are not only confined to political and military matters between the two countries but also extend to transferring China’s contacts attained in Gwadar, Europe, Middle East, Africa and recently London being  now transferred to Islamabad. Conversely Pakistan coalition with Saudi Arabia alongwith 38 Muslim countries will be deemed to have been transferred to China.

Under the leadership of Xi Jinping and the wise decision of Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif tables have been turned against US President Donald Trump’s influence in the world. This is clear illustrated by TRump’s first announcing against One-China but later when he blinked and agreed to follow US One-China policy. Moreover Trump administration is baffled in finding officials having close contacts with Kremlin and White House is busy collecting evidence against former US President Obama for wiretapping of Trump’s activities. US President Trump is thus entrapped in domestic problems but fails to understand the gravity of the situation presented by China-Pakistan and Muslim world congregation.

The new chapter in China-Pakistan relations started in May 2013 when the proposal of $46 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor  was put up by Chinese premier Li Keqiang and was finalised in 2015 in a short span of two years when President Xi Jinping visited Pakistan and signed 51 Memorandums of Understanding between the two countries. It is therefore not difficult to comprehend that India has been dilly-dallying on the Chabahar  and stands sidelined in this region.

CHINA-PAKISTAN Ties

The relations between China-Pakistan are so intertwined that Pakistan’s army chief Qamar  Javed Bajwa visited China  and Beijing terms defense cooperation with Islamabad only as relevant cooperation. China plans to co-produce ballistic  and cruise missiles with Pakistan  mass production of military aircraft along-with deploying one lakh marines at Gwadar port to secure the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor from terror attacks. China’s ambassador  to Pakistan Sun Weidong elaborated on the achievements from the CPEC as energy projects, transport infrastructure, Gwadar Port and industrial cooperation.

With Trump contemplating a cut in US aid to Pakistan, it hardly matters to Nawaz Sharif government with the massive financial support from China  and Saudi Arabia.At the same time China will succeed in securing Xinjiang form the Islamic State jihadists with the help of Pakistan and military coalition formed against the terror outfits formed by Saudi Arabia Defence Minister Mohammad bin Salman Al Saud.

Saudi Arabia-Pakistan ties

Saudi Arabia has offered retired Pakistan’s chief of army staff Raheel Sharif the position of director of the Saudi-led Islamic Military Alliance to fight terrorism(Islamic State and other terror outfits), a coalition of 39 countries that will have its headquaters in Riyadh. Riyadh has issued Sharif and his wife with three-year multiple visa for Saudi Arabia to head the military Alliance coalition force. The Saudi Kingdom has also accepted Nawaz Sharif’s conditions 1) of including Iran in the military alliance  to eliminate the chance of any sectarian differences 2) Raheel Sharif will not work under anyone’s command and 3) Raheel will have the mandate to act as an arbiter if there is a need to promote harmony among Muslim countries

The coalition force was formed on December 15,2015 including Jordan, UAE,Pakistan, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Benin, Turkey, Chad, Togo,Tunisia, Djibouti, Senegal, Sudan Sierra Leone, Somalia, Gabon, Guinea, Palestine, Comotos, Qatar, Cote d’Ivoire, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Malaysia, Mali, Malaysia, Egypt, Morocco, Mauritania, Niger, Nigeria and Yemen

Thus Indian prime minister Narendra Modi has failed to grasp the complexities of world politics in the context of security concerns of India.

arti bali

By : Arti Bali

Senior Journalist

Analysis

Climate change will worsen disparities, may increase support for Naxals: Report

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Maoists Naxal

Bengaluru, Oct 16 : As the effects of climate change on livelihoods become more pronounced, especially for people involved in agriculture and fishing in South and South-East Asia, support for rebel groups and the Naxalite movement is likely to shoot up, according to a new report.

There is evidence that climate change will worsen socio-economic and political disparity in the region as those in power will get to decide who gets the limited resources and how much, the report, co-authored by researchers Pernilla Nordqvist and Florian Krampe while working for the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), has said.

“The climate-conflict linkage primarily plays out in contexts that are already vulnerable to climate change and violence, and where income is highly dependent on agriculture and fishing,” Nordqvist told IndiaSpend in an email.

Human activities have already caused warming of 1 degree Celsius as compared to pre-industrial times, according to the latest report of the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). By 2030, or latest by mid-century, global warming is likely to reach 1.5 degrees Celsius.

Close to 2.5 billion people live in South and South-East Asia, where poverty rates have been declining substantially, thanks to years of strong economic growth in countries such as India. However, the region is also prone to the fallouts of climate change, with glaciers in the Himalayas melting and several island-countries facing rising sea levels. Floods, cyclones, heat waves and droughts are now a frequent occurrence and are expected to intensify in the coming years.

“The region is highly vulnerable to the impact of climate change and also has a recent history of political violence,” Krampe told IndiaSpend.

Nordqvist and Krame examined 2,000 peer-reviewed studies on the relationship between climate change and conflict and narrowed down on 21 of the most authoritative works for their report, which was published in September 2018.

Their findings from India show that rebel groups and government forces both find recruitment easier when drought is around the corner.

The IPCC report also adds that climate-related risks to livelihoods, food security, health, water supply and human security are projected to increase as the planet warms by 1.5 degrees. With a 2-degree rise, the risks will intensify.

In some areas affected by the Naxalite conflict, the worsening of livelihood conditions has been related to the increased intensity of ongoing civil conflicts. During a drought, or a potential drought, there is an increased risk that rebels and government actors recruit or cooperate with civilians in exchange for livelihood and provision of food.

Naxalites could use climate-related events to gain power in an ongoing conflict, and rebel groups more generally could increase their use of violence against civilians to ensure their groups’ food security, according to the report.

“They violently remove local farmers from their land to ensure enough cropland and agricultural supplies for their own use. The risk of violence seems especially high in rural areas, where government control is scarce and the local population is dependent on the support or protection of rebels or other armed actors,” Nordqvist said.

As climate change pushes up migration, it introduces the possibility of riots in urban areas over resources, the report said. Highlighting the case of riots in Tripura in northeastern India, it said the effects will be most felt in areas where there are already low levels of socio-political stability.

“Many of the climate change problems are trans-national. The Brahmaputra, for example, flows through three countries and is seeing frequent flooding. There is no question that countries will need to cooperate and tensions like the ones between countries India and Pakistan will make this difficult,” Krampe said.

There is some research on the relationship between climate change and conflict in countries such as India, Bangladesh and Pakistan, the report said, adding that there is little understanding of how climate change could be driving conflict in places such as Afghanistan and Myanmar.

Elsewhere in South-East Asia, in some coastal areas of Indonesia the reduced income opportunities from fishing have been linked to a rise in piracy-related activities.

But the impact does not end there.

In Pakistan, for instance, the Islamist group Jamaat-ud-Dawa (JUD) was able to increase its stronghold in Sindh province after the group participated in relief activities following extreme floods.

The IPCC report also warns that those living along coasts and populations dependent on agriculture will be the worst hit by climate change, which will push up poverty rates in coastal areas and in developing countries.

However, “Not everyone affected by climate change will join a rebel group but this also relates to the failure of the governments to respond to disasters,” Krampe said.

At the same time, not all areas will see conflict in the face of climate change. Some might even see a greater cooperation in the aftermath of a natural disaster. These regional dynamics are evolving, however, and their contours will only become clearer with time.

(In arrangement with IndiaSpend.org, a data-driven, non-profit, public interest journalism platform. Disha Shetty is a Columbia Journalism School-IndiaSpend reporting fellow. The views expressed are those of IndiaSpend. Feedback at [email protected])

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Higher food prices jack up India’s September wholesale inflation

“The prevailing market price for most kharif crops at major mandis has remained lower than the MSP, suggesting procurement hasn’t picked up.”

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wholesale inflation

New Delhi, Oct 15 : India’s inflation rate based on wholesale prices accelerated 5.13 per cent on year in September, from a 4.53 per cent increase in August, as prices of primary articles and food items rose, official data showed here on Monday.

In September last year, the WPI had stood at 3.14 per cent.

“The annual rate of inflation, based on monthly WPI, stood at 5.13 per cent (provisional) for the month of September, 2018 (over September, 2017), as compared to 4.53 per cent (provisional) for the previous month and 3.14 per cent during the corresponding month of the previous year,” the Ministry of Commerce and Industry said.

“Build up inflation rate in the financial year so far was 3.87 per cent compared to a build up rate of 1.50 per cent in the corresponding period of the previous year.”

On a sequential basis, the expenses on primary articles, which constitute 22.62 per cent of the WPI’s total weightage, rose 2.97 per cent, from a decline of 0.15 per cent in August.

Similarly, the prices of food articles rose. The category has a weightage of 15.26 per cent in the WPI index.

The cost of fuel and power, which commands a 13.15 per cent weightage, increased at a slower pace of 16.65 per cent from a growth of 17.73 per cent.

The expenses on manufactured products registered a rise of 4.22 per cent from 4.43 per cent.

On a year-on-year (YoY) basis, onion prices declined by 7.88 per cent, whereas potatoes became dearer by 68.81 per cent.

In contrast, the overall vegetable prices in September rose by 39.41 per cent, against a rise of 41.05 per cent in the same month a year ago.

Further, the data revealed that wheat became dearer by 6.09 per cent on a YoY basis while prices of pulses were up 0.74 per cent, though paddy became expensive by 2.03 per cent.

The prices of protein-based food items such as eggs, meat and fish went up marginally by 0.83 per cent.

The price of high-speed diesel rose by 11.88 per cent on a YoY basis, petrol by 10.41 per cent and LPG by 17.04 per cent.

“The WPI inflation for September 2018 revealed a negative surprise, printing 30 basis points higher than our forecast. Moreover, a lagged correction in the sub-index for crude oil is likely to result in the revised print for this month, exceeding the initial 5.1 per cent,” said Aditi Nayar, Principal economist, ICRA.

“The considerable uptick in the YoY WPI inflation in September 2018 relative to the previous month was driven by primary food and non-food items and minerals, whereas the other major indices recorded a sequential dip, partly driven by the base effect.”

According to Devendra Kumar Pant, Chief Economist and Senior Director (Public Finance), India Ratings and Research, “The prevailing market price for most kharif crops at major mandis has remained lower than the MSP, suggesting procurement hasn’t picked up.”

“The future inflation trajectory would depend on the response of mandi prices with respect of new MSP, and the movement of crude oil price and value of currency.”

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Gujarat Ministers go out with invites for tallest Sardar statue unveiling

If Chief Minister Vijay Rupani went to Uttar Pradesh to invite his counterpart Yogi Adityanath, his deputy Nitin Patel just returned from neighbouring Maharashtra after inviting Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis for the event.

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Sardar statue

Gandhinagar, Oct 15 : As the countdown for the unveiling of the tallest statue in the world by Prime Minister Narendra Modi has begun, Gujarat Ministers have fanned out across the country with invites for Chief Ministers for the big show on October 31.

Dedicated to Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel, the Statue of Unity with a height of 182 metres that has been claimed to be the world’s tallest. It will be unveiled on Patel’s birth anniversary.

As the Gujarat Chief Minister, Modi had on October 31, 2013 laid the foundation stone for the project. Built at a cost of Rs 2,389 crore, the statue stands 3.2 km downstream of the Narmada dam on the islet, Sadhu bet.

The Gujarat government wants this unveiling to be a grand event.

If Chief Minister Vijay Rupani went to Uttar Pradesh to invite his counterpart Yogi Adityanath, his deputy Nitin Patel just returned from neighbouring Maharashtra after inviting Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis for the event.

Similarly, the only woman minister in the cabinet, Vibhavriben Dave, just visited Tripura. Agriculture Minister R.C. Faldu has been tasked to invite the Assam Chief Minister.

Education Minister Bhupendrasinh Chudasama just returned from his trip to Haryana while Food and Civil Supplies Minister Jayesh Radadia has been sent to Uttarakhand. Energy and Petrochemicals Minister Saurabh Patel is now visiting Bihar with an invite for Chief Minister Nitish Kumar.

Minister of State for Home Pradeepsinh Jadeja returned from his trip to Himachal Pradesh. Social Justice and Empowerment Minister Ishwarbhai Parmar is in Goa for the purpose.

Forest Minister Ganpat Vasava is in Tamil Nadu, Dilip Thakore has been sent to Naveen Patnaik’s Orissa, Revenue Minister Kaushik Patel to Jharkhand, Ishwarbhai Patel to Arunachal Pradesh and Kishor Kanani has been sent to Meghalaya.

The construction of the statue is almost finished, with the work going on at a fast pace and final touches being given right now.

According to the government, the project is expected to bring in huge revenues in the form of tourism in the tribal region of the state.

The statue will have a museum on the life of Sardar Patel at the base and a viewing gallery, from where the visitors can see beyond the Narmada dam.

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