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New Delhi: Gorakhpur’s Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) MLA Radha Mohan Das questions lockdown relaxation given in the city, says if shops are allowed to operate, entire area may turn into a COVID-19 hotspot.

“When there was no coronavirus infected person in the city, the lockdown was followed fully and when a huge number of migrants came to Gorakhpur and COVID positive cases have touched 60, the administration has decided to open shops,” the MLA said.

Das said Gorakhpur has received the maximum trains that brought migrants from other states.

“CM Yogi Adityanath has said in his official statement that a huge number of workers coming from Mumbai are infected with the virus. At present, seven city areas have been declared as hotspots. If the shops will continue to operate every day, the entire city will become a hotsopt,” he said.

On Tuesday evening, the district administration had issued orders that all shops except malls, cinema halls, salons and parlours, can be opened as per the roster already issued and everyone has to follow the protocol for COVID-19.

Disaster

India May See 2.87 Lakh Covid Cases A Day By Winter 2021: MIT Study

The world may witness 249 million (24.9 crore) cases and 1.8 million (18 lakh) deaths by spring 2021 if there are no effective treatments or vaccination.

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COVID-19 pandemic

In the absence of a COVID-19 vaccine or drugs, the researchers from Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) have warned that India might record 2.87 lakh coronavirus cases per day by the end of winter 2021.

The world may witness 249 million (24.9 crore) cases and 1.8 million (18 lakh) deaths by spring 2021 if there are no effective treatments or vaccination, according to the study conducted by the researchers Hazhir Rahmandad, TY Lim and John Sterman of MIT’s Sloan School of Management.

“In this paper, we build and estimate a multi-country model of the Covid-19 pandemic at a global scale,” the study authors wrote.

Also Read: The Mysterious World Of Viruses And Why You Can’t Escape Them

For the findings, the MIT research team use a multi-country modified SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered) model, a standard mathematical model for infectious diseases used by epidemiologists, to simultaneously estimate the transmission of Covid-19 in 84 countries (4.75 billion people).

The model tracked community transmission, excluding the global travel network and instead separately estimating the date of introduction of patient zero for each country.

Within each country, the core of the model tracks the population through susceptible, pre-symptomatic, infected pre-testing, infected post-testing, and recovered states.

“Our model captures transmission dynamics for the disease, as well as how, at the country level, transmission rates vary in response to risk perception and weather, testing rates condition infection and death data, and fatality rates depend on demographics and hospitalisation,” they explained.

According to the study, the top 10 countries by projected daily infection rates at the end of winter 2021 are India, US, South Africa, Iran, Indonesia, Nigeria, Turkey, France and Germany.

Also Read: Our Live-in Virus: What Does the Real Covid Map Look Like?
India will be the worst affected country due to coronavirus followed by the US (95,000 cases per day), South Africa (21,000 cases per day) Iran (17,000 cases per day), and Indonesia (13,000 cases per day) at the end of winter 2021.

The MIT researchers also said that Infections are 12 times higher and deaths 50 per cent higher than previously reported.

“While actual cases are far greater than official reports suggest, the majority of people remain susceptible. Waiting for herd immunity is not a viable path out of the current pandemic,” Rahmandad said.

“Every community needs to keep the pandemic under control until a vaccine or treatment is widely available. A slow and half-hearted response only increases the human costs without offering much of an upside in terms of economic output,” Rahmandad noted.

Also Read: Did The Lockdown Work? What Did It Do? What Would Have Happened Without It?
As of Wednesday morning, the overall number of global COVID-19 cases has increased to more than 11.7 million, while the deaths have soared to over 543,000, according to Johns Hopkins University.

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Xi Jinping: The Chinese Hitler leading PRC to disaster

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Chinese President Xi Jinping is unfairly using early recovery from pandemic for external encroachment and internal consolidation.Chinese aggression in all domains will be rebuffed globally, led by powers suffering the most.

Xi Jinping”s over ambition and lust for power has been emboldened by mute tolerance in CPC and PRC. His adventurism is leading China to disaster, unless the Chinese reins its leadership.Backdrop

History is full of examples whenever the ambition of any autocrat grew beyond global tolerance, he became responsible for collapse of his regime, resulting in disaster of the country and population, which emboldened him by mute tolerance. Today, despite facing unprecedented global anger for being the originator of novel coronavirus, the aggressiveness of Chinese leadership on multiple fronts to suppress internal and external dissent has pushed the world against itself. Xi Jinping”s unfair adventurism for incremental encroachment to all his ever increasing claim areas in continental and maritime domain, at a time when other countries are suffering from most dangerous pandemic of the century, with death toll rising every day, is amounting to inhuman aggression, junking all morals, international conventions, rules, treaties and forcing the world to reluctantly react against his regime.

Xi Jinping”s Overambition

Xi started his term by dream-selling to pull China out of poverty line by 2020. Internationally he projected himself as the crusader for world peace and climate change(despite junking the ruling of PCA and violating UNCLOS), with a resolve to push through Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to fulfil Chinese dream of rejuvenation, after century of humiliation. As ”Chairman of Everything” he indirectly declared himself as the tallest leader on the planet, got himself re-elected for second term and did everything to make himself great, under the banner of ”Making China Great”. He assumed that the world will accept him as tallest autocratic leader, as Chinese people accepted him, without worthwhile checks and balances. His anti-corruption drive systematically eliminated the entire dissenting elements and all his possible competitors.

China: Boiling Pressure Cooker with no Safety Valve

Xi took over in 2012 as President with 7.9 per cent GDP growth and led China to economic downslide thereafter. With failing BRI, mishandling of COVID-19, there is no worthwhile achievement to his credit except that he managed to eliminate dissenting elements. His critiques in the CPC feel that his real achievements do not match his elevation to the status of MaoZedang, which has created some disgruntled elements/lobbies, who are still under check due to his comprehensive surveillance, because disagreeing with Xi ”The Core” is anti-national and leads to jail.

It is quite clear to Xi Jinping and CPC, that if he fails economically, and the educated people of China don”t get a decent life, they may not tolerate his autocracy, having no worthwhile grievance redressal mechanism and the democratic winds will start flowing from Hong Kong and Taiwan. The legal system stands hostage to party leadership justifies the boiling pot theory; hence the biggest threat to China comes from within. Some of his actions like laying restrictions on religious practices on Uyghurs” and their forced abortions in Xinjiang, use of force in implementing draconian National Security Law in Hongkong are too risky. The strict censorship of media and internet, electronic isolation, social engineering to bring societal changes are unpopular steps to minimize unrests.

Why over-ambitious Xi Opening Multiple Fronts?

The viability of ”Implosion theory” is feared to be a reality by a totalitarian regime; hence a dose of nationalism nurtured through external aggression, suits Xi Jinping”s hold on power, besides making best use of early recovery from COVID-19 in comparison to his competitors. China has unfairly used it as an opportunity to assert itself on multiple fronts, including India-China land borders to scrumptiously encroach some area not supposed to be held, as per the mutually agreed CBMs, where both sides were free to patrol. This is a sequel to the Chinese adventurism in Indo-Pacific at multiple places in South and East China sea with greater assertion against other claimants like Vietnam, Indonesia and Philippines. The rationale of China being over assertive at the time of pandemic comes from Sun Tzu”s thoughts of ”Strike adversary when it”s weak and preserve yourself when it is strong”. China is therefore speeding up its Incremental Encroachment Strategy in South China Sea as well as LAC.

The strategic calculations seem to be ambitious, as in authoritarian state, the sycophancy prevents leaders getting objective advices from subordinate strategists. When Hitler launched offensive in Russia in World War II, beyond its logistics limit for sustaining in winters, he overruled advices of subordinates and brought Germany to disaster.

In case of China, Xi emboldened by modernised arsenal and extensive exercises and propaganda is planning to take on some of the most experienced troops, despite not having a single pilot in the PLA with any operational experience. While its density of arsenal in South China Sea and Eastern Sea board looks impressive, but its vulnerability of long Sea lanes of Communications in Malacca strait and the Indian Ocean, coupled with blockading of its naval bases by hostile navies can draw out PLA out of its comfort zone, where it is no match to combined navies of hostile countries, including the US spending four to five times of China on defence over so many decades. The strong military posturing by navies from the US, Australia, Japan, and regional claimants of South China Sea enough for deterrence and accidental engagement, because an all-out war is recipe for mutually assured destruction (MAD), which even Beijing cannot afford given the fact that it faces potent nuclear and space power.

Contours of Undeclared Third World War

The forced occupation of landmass by China in terms of features in South China Sea claimed by others junking PCA ruling, has graduated to skirmishes. The dimensions of warfare to include economic war, cyber and information war, biological war by asymmetrical impact of COVID-19, resulting many more deaths than all world wars put together, large scale military posturing in Indo-Pacific and physical land grab offensive by China in Ladakh, using pandemic as a weapon.

The possible alliances also seem to be on the horizon seemingly China, Pakistan and North Korea taking on competitors of China and everyone else in the world not agreeing to Chinese narrative. The current global situation has every element of a World War, except that the dimension, instruments and modalities have changed from conventional war, and the war has not been ”Formally Declared”; hence it may well be called as ”Undeclared Third World War with Changed Instruments and dimensions”. The world has already entered in preparatory phase of it, without recognising it to be so.

Pattern of Global Reaction

In continental domain its land grab efforts in Ladakh have been rebutted by India, which honoured its 20 fallen soldiers with state honours, whereas the PLA chose to hide its fallen soldiers much more in number, creating another wave of anger amongst the PLA veterans. The mutual disengagement is being viewed with suspicion as PLA demonstrated its unprofessionalism to the world by using barbaric tools for attacking Indian soldiers, junking the CBMs and yet bought heavy casualties. India is certainly not going to take mini disengagement gestures for granted, unless PLA withdraws to pre-standoff positions; hence will be ready to respond with all options on the table.

In maritime front, the US has already demonstrated strong military posturing. The ASEAN, which was muted by China so far, by consolation of draft Code of Conduct and purse diplomacy, combined with coercion due to large power asymmetry, seems emboldened to talk about UNCLOS, demanding fair share of EEZ of affected countries. Taiwan, emboldened by national sentiments, leadership, the US support through Taiwan Relation Act and NDAA has started identifying itself as a nation, junking ”One country Two systems”, ready to defend itself should a situation arise, besides granting asylum to willing people from Hong Kong. Japan is looking for strengthening its defence capabilities. Some more adventurism by North Korea may see Japan going nuclear in future. Xi Jinping”s ambition has costed global loss of trust and some important markets for China. Russia and Iran have a forced marriage with China, due to sanctions from the West, but given the geo-strategic situation, playing neutral, along with sale of weaponry/oil may be the best option for them.

China may be able to implement the draconian National Security Act in Hong Kong, but global reaction is unavoidable. China has to bear the cost of demise of its financial hub, with many countries inclined for economic distancing, shifting FDI, banning concessions granted to Hong Kong, granting citizenship to those willing to exit, thus creating ideal conditions for urban insurgency in times to come, besides the rural insurgency of Xinjiang. Suddenly the voices in support of Uighurs and Tibetans and questions on ”One China Policy” have started becoming active, notwithstanding the threats of Chinese wolf warrior diplomats.

Future of China under over-ambitious Xi

Xi Jinping”s Chinese dream of ”Rejuvenation” and his aim of ”Prosperous Developed Society” with a ”War Winning Modern PLA” by 2050 was achievable, had he not harboured dictatorial over ambition to achieve these aims and dislodge the US as a superpower, making unfair use of pandemic. In fact, the first major conversion of features in South China Sea to military bases took place during the last US elections, with no big bang action from the US. This emboldened Xi to use pandemic unfairly to fulfil all his aims before time, without having capacity to protect its global shipping outside its eastern seaboard. With the kind of global anger he has generated against his regime, the lesson of diversification of global factory for the world, along with need of economic distancing from China has become evident. Xi has thus pushed his country on a path to disaster unless Chinese people wake up and shake up the CCP and rein their leadership to protect their dreams.

Takeaway for India

From the Indian perspective, this is the time when Beijing is under maximum external and internal pressure since last five decades. If Beijing continues with its high headedness, it will invite further pressure. This may well be the time to push through border settlement or demarcation of LAC as the political cost of resolving the border/LAC may be lesser than an active front with India. India should not settle down with token disengagement because unless the LAC is demarcated the standoffs will continue. For the time being India should not blink at the borders.

(Major General S. B. Asthana, SM, VSM Veteran is the Chief Instructor, United Service Institution of India. The views expressed here are his personal views.)

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Hold Xi Jinping accountable for genocide: Uyghurs to United Nations

The Campaign for Uyghurs Executive Director, Rushan Abbas, pointed out that this situation has led to ”government sponsored mass rapes”.

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Uyghur Muslims in China

New York July 8 : The Uyghur Turks and other Muslim communities in China have asked the United Nations and other international organisations to put pressure on China and investigate the acts of genocide perpetrated against the Uyghurs.

A report titled “Genocide in East Turkistan” holds China responsible and says that despite the Covid 19 pandemic, the Chinese government continues its oppression and persecution of Uyghur Turks and other Muslim communities for its own political and economic interests.

The report says that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) systematically continues to pressure and torture Uyghurs to force them to assimilate and then destroys them.

“The Beijing Administration breached the “Prevention of Genocide” contract which was signed and approved by them before the international community,” the report said.

“As such, the President of the People”s Republic of China, Xi Jinping, and the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region Secretary, Chen Quanguo, and other executives are all responsible and accountable for these crimes,” the report said.

The report has been prepared by the Campaign for Uyghurs, which works to promote and advocate the human rights and democratic freedom of the Uyghurs and other Turkic people in East Turkistan (referred to in China as Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region).

It demanded that in order to monitor China”s policies in the region, it is necessary to create an international commission which would take the necessary measures to effectively observe China”s actions in the region.

The genocide committed against the Arakanese Muslims who fled Myanmar was moved to the International Court of Justice by Gambia. This case was filed by Gambia (a Muslim majority nation) on behalf of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation.

“The Organization of Islamic Cooperation should act on the crimes of genocide committed in East Turkistan,” it demanded.

The report has demanded that China should be held accountable for all the human rights violations they committed, especially in the concentration camps.

The coronavirus gives a crucial insight into how China manipulates the world, and many countries are beginning to question the acts by the Beijing administration.

“Unfortunately, on our watch, Uyghurs share a similar fate with the occupied people of Palestine. This is an international case. All countries, especially the Islamic world, should act before it is too late,” the report demanded.

“It is important that the United Nations and other international organisations take the necessary measures to put pressure on China and take actions to investigate the acts of genocide perpetrated against the Uyghurs. These crimes must be brought forward by an international commission and their perpetrators must be prosecuted in the International Court of Justice,” the report said.

East Turkistan, officially called the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region by China, has in recent years become a place with the most widespread human rights violations.

The Chinese Communist Party is exerting increasing pressure and tyranny towards the Muslim communities, especially Uyghur Turks, as a result of economic, political and geopolitical interests in those regions.

Since 2014 in particular, Uyghurs have been forced to systematically assimilate with the objective of eradicating their ethnic identity and the population. In recent years, the events taking place in East Turkistan have met the definition of genocide listed in the ”Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide” signed in 1948, the report said.

The Chinese government sent 1.1 million Han Chinese cadres to East Turkistan to control the daily lives of the Uyghurs. Their job is to stay in Uyghur homes, share the same bed with them if necessary, and control all aspects of their daily lives.

With the ”Double Relative Programme” initiated by the Beijing government, Han Chinese cadres make visits at least once every two months and stay for about a week.

During the stay, while constantly spreading the Chinese Communist Party propaganda, they also spy on them. During these visits, they encourage drinking alcohol and eat pork, which are forbidden in Islam. If a Uyghur requests ”halal meat” from the market and if they do not drink, they are declared a suspect and sent to the camps.

“The most dangerous aspect of this double relative programme is that women, whose husbands are in the camps, have to share the same bed with the Chinese cadres,” the report noted.

The Campaign for Uyghurs Executive Director, Rushan Abbas, pointed out that this situation has led to ”government sponsored mass rapes”.

Forcing young Uyghur girls to marry Han Chinese men is a step towards changing the demographics in East Turkistan, in particular, as a result of the Chinese who come to stay in Uyghur houses as permanent guests and marry the young girls living there.

Parents are unable to object to the marriage because if they do, they are sent to the camps. In order to disrupt the Uyghur family structure, the Beijing administration offers the Han Chinese money, jobs and free homes for these arranged marriages.

The Communist Party successfully spreads propaganda through films and advertisements and other broadcasting organs in order to recruit candidates for the forced marriages, the report found.

Another crime committed by the Chinese Communist Party is the forced transfer of people from East Turkistan into proper China to work in forced labour facilities. Just as the Nazis forced Jews to work, Uyghurs are sent to work in factories with uniforms similar to prisoners.

The ”Uyghurs for Sale” report prepared by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute contains striking information. In the report, it was revealed that more than 80,000 Uyghurs were taken from the camps and sent to the factories to produce goods for globally renowned Wester companies, such as Nike, GAP and Apple.

The unconfirmed statistics put that number to over 500 companies.

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