Most exit polls on Saturday projected the end of the Nitish Kumar era and emergence of Tejashwi Prasad Yadav in Bihar.
After Nitish Kumar’s 15-year Kumar rule, the RJD-led Grand Alliance (GA) seems to be heading to form the next government following an intensely fought election. Some of the exit polls also did not rule out a close finish for a majority figure.
The exit poll of Republic-Jan Ki Baat stated that GA is likely to win 118-138 seats out of 243, leaving the JD(U)-led NDA to be content with 91-117 seats, clearly short of the majority. The Chirag Paswan-led Lok Janshakti Party has been projected to fetch 5-8 seats, while others may win 3-6 seats. The exit poll results showed that the GA is expected to get 40%-43% votes, while the NDA’s vote share is projected at 37%-39%.
The exit poll analysis of Today’s Chanaykya stated that the GA might win as many as 180 seats, while the NDA is projected to win 55 seats. The survey stated that about 63% respondents favoured change in the governance, while the rest believed that Nitish Kumar would continue to remain the chief minister. Unemployment was assessed to be the most crucial issue for the electors.
Though the Times Now-CVoter also foresaw the emergence of GA as the largest coalition after the assembly polls, it refrained from predicting majority to any of the alliances. According to the exit-poll result, the Grand Alliance is set to win 120 seats, while the NDA may wrest 116 seats. It offered only one seat to the LJP and six to others.
The ABP-CVoter foresaw a keen contest between the GA and the NDA in the assembly polls. The GA has been projected to win 108-131 seats, while the NDA is tipped to win 104-128 seats. The LJP may win one to three seats and others are likely to emerge successful on four to eight seats.
The exit poll conducted by Bhaskar group, however, stated that the Nitish Kumar-led government would have another stint in Bihar with the NDA winning 120-127 seats, restricting GA on 71-81 seats. The LJP has been projected to wrest 12-23 seats, and others winning on 10-27 seats.
The TV9 Bharatvarsh survey also projected the GA becoming a clear winner of the polls by bagging 115-125 seats, leaving the NDA second with 110-120 seats.
The Ajtak-My Axis polls observed that 44% electors wished to see Tejashwi Prasad Yadav as the next chief minister, while 35% of them stated that Nitish Kumar will continue to head the government. About 7% electors supported Chirag Paswan and RLSP-chief Upendra Kushwaha has been projected to be the favourite of 4% electors.
In 2015, most exit polls predicted that NDA would get somewhere between 100 and 127 seats, a little higher than Mahagathbandhan, but it did not indicate any majority. In the final results, however, Mahagathbandhan won with a comfortable majority.
JD (U) spokesman Rajiv Ranjan Prasad said that there was no element of doubt over the success of NDA in the elections. “Just wait for a few more days and all the expectations of GA leaders would come crashing,” said Prasad.
RJD national spokesman Manoj Jha exuded confidence that the GA was set to win more than 122 seats. Congress party leader Prem Chandra Mishra echoed similar sentiments, saying that the GA would emerge as the clear winner of the election.
BJP leader Sanjay Tiger said that the NDA would get the majority and exit polls would be proved wrong as it happened in the past.
(An election exit poll, not always known to be correct, is a poll of voters taken immediately after they exit the polling stations.)
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